NEWS / Government Ministries

Surge in Japanese exports fails to buoy Yen

June 22nd - It??™s shaping up to be a relatively quiet week on the economic calendars although an impressive improvement in export data released from Japan overnight has failed to offer the Yen much additional support in recent trade. However, concern over the tenure of BoJ Governor Fukui does seem to be depressing sentiment against the Yen right now ??“ his departure would be seen by many as delaying a move towards higher rates ??“ and there??™s also the fact that some appreciation was seen earlier in the week by the Yen against the greenback on the basis that continued expansion in the economy would result in a move away from the ultra lax interest rate policy in due course. Unless we see any further criticism emerge over Fukui??™s personal investments, traders will be left looking at relatively minor items of data - today??™s US weekly jobless claims and tomorrow??™s durable goods orders ??“ in the short term. Come next week however there??™s going to be a lot of attention focused on the FOMC meeting. There??™s little doubt we??™ll see 25 basis points added, but any suggestion as to where rates may go in the second half of 2006 will doubtless provide further direction.

Andy Cottrill and Enis Mehmet