NEWS / Trade Policy

Dollar holds onto recent gains; Yen unable to capitalise on upbeat consumer spending

June 28th - Yesterday??™s upbeat US consumer confidence data may have reinforced the dollar??™s recent dominance although traders are continuing to focus on tomorrow??™s FOMC verdict and the accompanying comments regarding the outlook for monetary policy as we move into the second half of 2006. Overall there??™s little else around to provide direction for the greenback just now and as a result the recently established ??“ and fairly tight ??“ ranges do seem to be holding. A notable run of dollar buying was initiated at the start of the European session although once again there seems to be little fundamental data around to support this move and as a result it may yet prove unsustainable. Oil prices are also on the increase once again and with demand for gasoline rising over the summer, this will clearly result in further inflationary pressures that will need to be considered by the Fed. A rise in Japanese retail sales has failed to lend any real support to the Yen in overnight trade ??“ there was initially a run of buying but the Fukui situation continues to dog the currency and with the jump in spending being attributed to exceptional factors such as the world cup, again it raises questions over how sustainable numbers like this are in the longer term. Overall it??™s going to be good to get tomorrow??™s announcement out of the way, allowing the market to undertake its quarter end position keeping and start looking at the raft of data that will be issued at the beginning of July??¦

Tim Wilbraham and Enis Mehmet