NEWS / Trade Policy

Dollar looking exposed as traders await payroll data.

July 3rd - With tomorrow??™s US public holiday it may well prove to be a rather quiet start to the week for currency markets although data out of Japan overnight has at least given USD/JPY traders something to work on. The Tankan survey came in in-line with expectations although heavy buying of the greenback by Japanese importers has ensured that there??™s been little overall direction as a result. However, there??™s a lot of speculation that next week??™s BoJ monetary policy meeting may mark the end of the zero-rate era ??“ something that the Tankan data will certainly reinforce - and if more buy into this scenario then expect additional Yen appreciation to follow. In the longer term, it seems as if the June US payroll data ??“ due for release on Friday ??“ will likely provide the most significant direction for the dollar as the week progresses. Many are also seeing the employment reading as being key in directing Bernanke??™s report to congress later this month and also as to whether the August FOMC meeting will see the long awaited break in the cycle of rate hikes from Washington. With oil prices making for $75 once again the ongoing prospect of inflationary pressures cannot be ignored but after a generally bullish June, the dollar has already initiated something of a retreat and this may well continue in the near term??¦

Andy Cottrill and Enis Mehmet