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GVI Monthly Forex Poll Results

In the latest monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion site, sentiment for the dollar against the euro remained negative. The three-month ahead mean forecast for EURUSD was 1.2900 from 1.2919 a month earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (July 4 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.2795.

The GVI-Cumino Euro bull index (Range 0-100; 0 = most bearish, 100 = most bullish, 50 = neutral) turned more positive the EUR/USD to 55 from 53 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made. The USD/JPY mean dollar forecast turned higher to 112.84 from 110.92 one month ago. The USD/JPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 112.08. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index was up. It was 39 after 33.

Traders expect the price of crude oil to close at $73.77 in three-months time from the current spot vs. the previous $71.08 estimate.

In a special question, participants were asked if they felt the Bank of Canada U.S. target rate would be raised by +25bps on July 11. 62% say yes, while 38% say no.

For complete detailed survey results including history see:

http://www.global-view.com/gvi/Survey.htm