NEWS / Fiscal Policy, Budget

Dollar should be sold here

By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader Yesterdays News and Events: The Dollar rebounded strongly across the board on Monday, EURUSD unable to hold above 1.28 fell to a low of 1.2705 this morning, this weeks key support at 1.2700 remains unharmed so far. Cable fell as low as 1.8370 on Monday, USDCHF recovered to above 1.23. The move started after markets sold Cable on mixed UK inflation in May, which may delay a GBP rate hike by another month or more. Later on Commodities were sold helping the US Dollar to expand its gains on the day, Brent Crude lost nearly $2 from its $75 high late last week, Gold dipped $12 to $621, overnight profit taking has seen the metal recover to $627. USDJPY also traded along, rising to spike at a 114.45 high this morning, key resistance is a touch higher at 114.65. We maintain a bearish view, waiting for a BOJ rate hike at the end of the week. Japanese Finance Minister Tanigaki repeated his plea to leave rates at zero percent but a poll conducted among Japanese analysts shows that a large majority of market watchers do expect a hike. Henra Paulson was sworn in as new Treasury Secretary on Monday, in his opening speech he committed himself to build on past achievements, ensuring that the US economy ???remains a model of strength, flexibility and openness??™. While maintaining the current strong Dollar policy, his biggest challenge will be to continue pressing China for a currency revaluation. ECB??™s Weber, also president of the German Bundesbank criticized his government plans to raise VAT by 3%, saying that such moves had averse effects on consumer spending while at the same time driving inflation. Such moves irritate the ECB??™s plan of price stability, forcing additional rate hikes which in turn could slow economic growth further. Todays Key Issues: UK Trade Balance is due at 8.30GMT. After a gap of some ??5.7Bln in April??™s visible Trade Balance forecasts expect a slightly deeper deficit of ??5.9Bln in May. The Risk Today: 1-H EURUSD: We can draw a short-term bearish resistance form Fridays top, 1.2740 is bearish resistance, while it holds we must expect more attacks on the 1.2700 key support. Intra-day we may stretch the low to 1.2685 but must close the day above key resistance in order to maintain our medium-term bullish forecast for 1.2950, by the end of the day the short-term bearish trend-line will have crossed the key support and we will know which way is next. Risk to the downside is to move on and fall all the way to medium-term rising support at 1.2540. On top a rise through 1.2740 early on should lift the pair to 1.2820, strong resistance only at 1.2885. Resistance and Support: EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF 1.2820 S 1.8580 K 115.05 T 1.2425 K 1.2785 M 1.8485 S 114.65 K 1.2360 S 1.2740 T 1.8430 M 114.35 M 1.2330 M 1.2715 1.8400 114.25 1.2315 1.2700 K 1.8385 S 114.05 T 1.2260 K 1.2675 S 1.8350 S 113.50 M 1.2240 S 1.2630 M 1.8270 K 112.85 S 1.2170 S S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot