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08:26 2006/07/11

NEWS / Trade Policy

Daily Technicals: Dollar with short-term gains

by Marc Spaelti

EURUSD: The EURUSD failed to hold the 1.2785 level and dropped to 1.2715 low. Key support at 1.2700, additional strong support 1.2670, a daily close underneath of 1.27 stops our immediate bullish view and we risk to fall to as low as 1.2540. short-term bearish resistance at 1.2735 is initial hurdle to the top, next minor resistance 1.2750, once cleared the pair can swiftly return to 1.28, first strong resistance at 1.2815/25, 1.2885 next.

GBPUSD: Cable dropped to a low of 1.8370 from where it bounced to 1.8450. Initial support at 1.8405 should hold, stronger at 1.8380, while above a return to 1.85 is expected and we maintain our bullish outlook for a try of the 1.8580 key resistance and a break points to a medium-term move towards 1.90

USDJPY: The Dollar bounced a full 100 pips to reach a 114.45 high this morning. Key resistance unchanged at 114.65, intra-day we may spike to the medium-term bearish resistance at 115.05, that level may not be bypassed. Short-term rising support at 114.05, a breech is bearish for minor 113.85, stronger 113.50 and could reach as low as 112.85 strong support.

USDCHF: The Dollar rebounded to as high as 1.2335 yesterday, staying within the expected range, we can maintain our medium-term bearish outlook. Strong resistance 1.2350, key 1.2415 must hold, looking to drop back to the 1.2240/60 key area, a lower daily close is bearish for 1.20.

@08:30GMT UK Trade Balance May

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USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
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EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
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