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Daily Forex Market Commentary for July 12, 2006

Wednesday, July 12, 2006 8:00 GMT
Daily Forex Market Commentary
By: Cornelius Luca, Currencies Analyst, GFT


The dollar did the expected thing on Tuesday, as it climbed a little higher and then pulled back into a trading range. The market will probably use the lame excuse of another lousy US trade report to sell a few more bucks on Wednesday.

Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar bottomed at 1.2705 on Tuesday, obviously above the support at 1.2700, so we are back to sideways trading.

Since the area between 1.2695 and 1.2700 held, the pair should break the resistance at 1.2760. It should then challenge 1.2790 and if this level gives way, then brace yourself for a test of the further levels at 1.2820 and even 1.2862.

If 1.2700 gives way, which is unlikely, then you would see long liquidation. Look then for a test of 1.2670 and even 1.2630. Distant support remains at 1.2560.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen nearly reached the upside target of 114.20 and closed basically unchanged on Tuesday as well. For now it looks like the head-and-shoulders pattern is on hold, but I??™m not sure of this recovery yet. The key level remains the 50-point pivot at 114.20, which targets 113.70 and 114.70.

Above 114.70, strong resistance remains at 115.50, from a 50-pip pivot, which targets 116.00 and 115.00. Next level is 116.58.

The pair has support at 113.78 from the 31.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the uptrend between May 17 and June 27 and of course 113.70. Intermediate support is at 112.90 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 113.40 and 112.40.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar made a mild recovery on Tuesday, as expected, but remained within Friday??™s range, with the bottom protected by the 50-day moving average. It should now make another mild upmove, as sideways trading seems to have resumed.

Resistance remains initially at 1.8455 and then at 1.8480. Only a close above 1.8510 would signal a more aggressive rally and then the cable could even retest the high at 1.8538.

Support still comes at 1.8365. If this level gives way, then the cable has a chance to break out of the trading range on the downside and to 1.8320. Distant support is at 1.8260.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with a bearish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc peaked at 1.2330 and slipped slightly on Tuesday, as it looks like it??™s back to the trading range. Again, we need more proof something big is in the works.

Initial resistance is at 1.2335 and that??™s followed by 1.2355. A break above the latter would open the gates to a rally 1.2405. Distant resistance looms at 1.2455.

The pair has support first to 1.2270 and then to even 1.2225. If somehow traders shake away the vacation mood, maybe even the 1.2180 area could be revisited.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

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