NEWS / Foreign Exchange

Daily Forex Market Commentary for July 13, 2006

Thursday, July 13, 2006 8:00 GMT
Daily Forex Market Commentary
By: Cornelius Luca, Currencies Analyst, GFT


The dollar continued to alternate up and down days, and Wednesday was the up day. The US trade gap was less lousy than expected, but only because it??™s one month behind China??™s surplus which surged, of course. That would suggest a decline today, especially with the stocks plunging and the oil higher.

Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar fell to a near two-week low of 1.2672 on Wednesday but should now recover, at least in early trading.

The pair should try to test and break the resistance at 1.2760. If successful, it should then challenge 1.2790 and if this level gives way, then brace yourself for a test of the further levels at 1.2820 and even 1.2862.

If 1.2700 gives way on a closing basis, then you would see long liquidation. Look then for a test of 1.2670 and even 1.2630. Distant support remains at 1.2560.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen nearly rallied to 115.71 on Wednesday before trimming gains. The key level is now 115.50, from a 50-pip pivot, which targets 116.00 and 115.00.

Below 115.00, support remains the 50-point pivot at 114.20, which targets 113.70 and 114.70.

Above 115.50, strong resistance remains at 116.58.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar fell to a near two-week low of 1.8307 but should now bounce slightly on profit taking.

Resistance is initially at 1.8365 and then at 1.8400. Strong resistance is at 1.8460 and only a close above 1.8510 would signal a more aggressive rally and then the cable could even retest the high at 1.8538.

Support now comes at 1.8307. If this level gives way, then the cable has a chance to challenge the distant support is at 1.8260.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with a bearish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc rallied to a near two-week high of 1.2371 before trimming gains. It should slip some before attempting to resume its upmove.

The pair has support first to 1.2305. That??™s followed by 1.2270 and then to even 1.2225. Distant support comes in the 1.2180 area.

Initial resistance is at 1.2370. A break above it would open the gates to a rally 1.2405. Distant resistance looms at 1.2455.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

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