NEWS / Central Banks

Daily Forex Market Commentary for July 17, 2006

Monday, July 17, 2006 8:00 GMT
Daily Forex Market Commentary
By: Cornelius Luca, Currencies Analyst, GFT


The dollar closed higher on Friday against the European currencies and the yen, but slumped versus the commodity currencies as the newest wave of war in the Middle East vaulted the gold and the oil exploded to record highs. With the Middle East crisis continuing, then the dollar??™s upmove should not last to long.

Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar made a choppy decline on Friday. It formed a short-term declining channel but faces support right here at 1.2620.

Initial support is at 1.2605 from a Gann level. Next support lies at 1.2540 from a Fibonacci retracement level.

Immediate resistance is at 1.2690. Next level is 1.2730. Above the Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2785, resistance now comes at 1.2850

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen recovered from rallied on Friday after the timid rate hike in Japan and challenged the top of the uptrend. The rally was thwarted by a Gann level, and the closing by a trendline resistance, so only a close above this area would signal a further aggressive upmove

Above 116.37, resistance is seen at 116.70 and nearby at 116.85 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35.

The pair has support at 115.70. Strong support remains at 115.50, from a 50-pip pivot, which targets 116.00 and 115.00.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar headed lower last Friday but the decline was mild. Some more convincing move either way is needed to break the stalemate, which left the pair in an inside range for both Thursday and Friday.

Below 1.8340, the pound has support at 1.8310. Next level is 1.8265 from a Fibonacci retracement level.

Good resistance comes at 1.8425 from a Fibonacci retracement level and a close above this level would suggest an accelerated upmove to 1.8540.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc
Alternating up and down days took dollar/Swiss franc higher last week, but the rally was not impressive.

Above 1.2376, resistance is now seen at 1.2400 and 1.2455.

Support is then pegged at 1.2320. That??™s followed by 1.2275 and 1.2230.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

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