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D

16:48 2006/08/01

NEWS / Foreign Exchange

Daily Technicals: Dollar may correct in the short-term

by Marc Spaelti

EURUSD: A new high of 1.2785 was achieved midday on Monday, but follow-on buyers were missing and the pair stands a touch lower at 1.2730 presently. Short-term trend-line right here at 1.2730 is under threat, we risk a dip to 1.2700 or as low as 1.2665 in the short-term but maintain a bullish bias mid-term. On top initial resistance 1.2750, bypassing that relieves the pressure on the Euro which should advance to 1.2820/50 unchanged target for the week.

GBPUSD: Cable has broken its short-term bullish trend late last night, risk today is to dip, initial support 1.8620, more at 1.8585, 2-week rising trend and key level at 1.8530 should limit the downside. As long as the 1.8620 initial support holds Cable can re-test the upside, strong initial resistance 1.8675, bypassing can see it achieve the 1.8850 target.

USDJPY: 114.20 held the day and the pair returned to 114.80 overnight. This is the 1-week bearish trend-line, suggest selling here with a tight stop. We should see at least 114.30, but an attack at 114.15 could see follow through to 113.50 next strong support. A breech at 114.85 should lift the pair to at least 115.15, 115.30 strong resistance, 115.50 key must hold to maintain a bearish outlook this week.

USDCHF: The dip to a new low of 1.2280 was only short-lived, the pair returned quickly above 1.23, overnight it spiked to 1.2365. With this short-term bearish resistance has been broken and risk is for a counter-move towards 1.2420, key resistance unchanged above 1.25. Initial support 1.2325, stronger at 1.2300, key support 1.2260 are the levels to break in order to finally see the currency move on towards 1.20ish

@09:30GMT UK PMI Manufacturing July
@12:30GMT US Personal Income, Consumption June
@14:00GMT US Manufacturing ISM July



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