NEWS / Fiscal Policy, Budget

Euro making steady gains - eyes 1.3000

Daily Currency report for Monday August 7 2006

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Jun $4.0B $4.0B $4.4B
Aug 08 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q2 0.9% 1.1% 3.7%
Aug 08 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Aug 09 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Jun 0.6% 0.6% 0.8%
Aug 09 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/04 NA NA -1774K
Aug 10 08:30 Initial Claims 08/05 310K NA 315K
Aug 10 08:30 Trade Balance Jun -$64.8B -$64.5B -$63.8B
Aug 10 14:00 Treasury Budget Jul -$44.0B -$47.8B -$53.4B
Aug 11 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jul NA NA 0.6%
Aug 11 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jul NA NA 0.4%
Aug 11 08:30 Retail Sales Jul 0.9% 0.6% -0.1%
Aug 11 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jul 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Aug 11 10:00 Business Inventories Jun 0.6% 0.5% 0.8%

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: More steady gains as the euro breaks to a new recent weekly high and gains 200 pips in the course of the last week. As we are not particularly overbought and as bullish momentum has plenty of room to increase, we expect that the euro will try to reach for 1.3000 this week, with a possible break above there causing a few second thoughts about the long term picture for the euro and the dollar. Continue to buy dips, with the price probably holding above 1.2700/2750 this week.

Strategy today: Buy dips to 1.2820, adding to 1.2750, stops below 1.2700, target 1.3000.

Chart: Steady Eddy as we continue to rise in manageable chunks