NEWS / Foreign Exchange

Dollar strikes six week high against majors

By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader Yesterdays News and Events: The dollar rose to six-week highs on Friday as dealers aimed at technical targets and positioned for the risk that the Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates again to fight inflation. Eurusd went down from 1.2732 to low 1.2652 on Friday and 1.2649 this morning. In the same mood, Gbpusd started Friday up to 1.8754 and went down to low 1.8629. UsdJpy jumped from its low 116.11 to high 117.04 on Friday and still running this morning high 117.34. Usdchf went up from 1.2425 to Friday high 1.2508 and high 1.2500 this morning. Traders said the dollar??™s gains were mostly technically driven. Solid US economic data and warnings on inflation from Federal Reserve this week have also lent the dollar some supports. Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold this month. One of the biggest losers this week has been the NZD, which has slumped almost 3% and extended losses on Friday after the country??™s finance minister expressed about the currency??™s recent rise, today low 0.6344. Todays Key Issues: GB July Trade Balance at 8:30 GMT due -6.2b vs -6.46b. CA Aug House Starts at 12:15 GMT due 227k vs 236.5k (annualized). Tomorrow 05:00 GMT JPN August Consumer Confidence Index (prior 48.6). The Risk Today: G7 awaited; speakers form the Fed this week have continued to sound warnings on higher inflation even though economic growth is slowing, keeping the risk alive the Fed could be forced to tighten policy later this year and support the dollar. Friday's break of 1.2695 support confirmed threatening bearish trend. But 1.2941 is still defined as level needed to be broken and relieve downward pressure on the range 1.2456 - 1.2980 which has contained price action since May. Eurusd trend-line support came at 1.2692 today; it looks set for a deeper setback with respect to the 1.2456 to 1.2980 advance, which has its 61.8% and 76.4% retracements at 1.2641 and 1.2570 respectively. The immediate outlook remains negative under 1.2880. We need a recovery over 1.2980 to clear this negative tone. Some risk remains for an extended Eurusd sell-off down to 1.2456 range base. USDCHF Thursday's break of 1.2446 resistance reinforced the recent bullish tone; paving the way for extended upside near 1.2597. It is likely targeting 1.2736 (61.8% retracement of the 1.3241 to 1.1919 decline). The short-term up-trend dominates above 1.2418, and next support stays at 1.2323. GBPUSD maintains a heavy tone but support remains 1.8618 (50% retracement of the 1.8090 to 1.9146 advance). More likely further slippage is still possible to 1.8493 (61.8% retracement). USDJPY we maintain a bearish bias within the 115.56 - 117.51 range, expecting the downside to remain under pressure. Resistance and Support: EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF 1.2950 K 1.8900 S 118.00 T 1.2597 S 1.2920 S 1.8820 T 117.65 S 1.2548 T 1.2880 M 1.8780 M 117.20 P 1.2500 M 1.2710 1.8696 117.10 1.2438 1.2640 S 1.8660 S 116.10 M 1.2400 T 1.2570 M 1.8610 K 115.50 S 1.2360 S 1.2560 T 1.8493 T 114.75 K 1.2310 K S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot