NEWS / Monetary Policy

Dollar traders await key data, cable finds support

September 14th - The dollar is looking somewhat rangebound as we run towards the key numbers that many traders have been waiting for. Starting with the Retail Sales figures later today, the market is going to be looking closely for any suggestions as to where the Fed will take its monetary policy at next week??™s meeting. Obviously there??™s some concern that the recent labor cost figures showed a notable rise but so long as this isn??™t filtering through to an increase in spending then the FOMC may well decide to sit tight for the next few weeks. Speculation is however continuing to build that that the Bank of England may need to implement another rate hike in due course and this is being reflected in cable which continues to steadily recover from recent losses and is now trading back above 1.8800. Falling unemployment combined with a modest improvement in high street spending and inflation at 2.5% present a myriad of factors which suggest that a move by the BoE to 5% would be prudent. The next meeting to reflect this isn??™t until early October although with the release of the last set of meeting minutes scheduled for Wednesday, again these can expect to be closely scrutinised and any hawkish tone here will likely provide further support for Sterling.

David Hutchings