NEWS / Macroeconomic Stories

Daily Forex Market Commentary for September 14, 2006

GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary by Cornelius Luca
Forex Market Commentary for September 14, 2006


The dollar closed little changed versus the European currencies after giving up gains against the franc, slipping versus the pound and treading water against the yen. Dollar/yen fell on the day on the risk the G7 meeting will talk up the yen at its meeting this weekend. These concerns are misplaced. Expect choppy trading on Thursday and Friday, with a possible spike following the US retail sales report.

Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar traded sideways in a tight range and closed little changed on Wednesday as well. There is little reason to expect a break out of the trading range.

Initial support is still seen at 1.2660. That is followed by the area between 1.2631 and 1.2639. Further support looms at 1.2555.

Immediate resistance remains at 1.2720 and then at 1.2745. Above 1.2815 there is resistance at 1.2850.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly lower
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen fell on Wednesday to reverse all the gains made a day earlier. There is fear that the G7 might talk the yen or the yuan up at its meeting this weekend ??“ this makes for a good laugh. Weakness should persist through the end of the week though.

The pair has initial support at 117.40. Strong support follows at 116.85 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35. Below 115.80, good support remains at 115.50, from a 50-pip pivot, which targets 116.00 and 115.00.

Immediate resistance is at 117.95. Strong resistance remains at 118.25 from a 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75. 118.25 is unlikely to break. Pivotal resistance follows at 119.00.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar only struggled higher after rallying on Tuesday. It should attempt to pad its gains, but should not be an easy feat.

Initial resistance is still seen at 1.8780. Above 1.8835 there is resistance at 1.8870 and at 1.8900.

Immediate support is now pegged at 1.8720. That??™s followed by 1.8675. Below 1.8600 there is strong support only at 1.8555.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss traded on cue on Thursday, making a new high for the uptrend, but not for long. The overall picture remains mildly bullish, but the short term is mixed.

Initial resistance is at 1.2560 and that??™s followed nearby by a pivotal high at 1.2594. Distant resistance is pegged at 1.2700.

Immediate support is at 1.2440 and that is followed by 1.2410. Distant support is now pegged at 1.2280.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

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