NEWS / Trade Policy

Daily Forex Market Commentary for September 15, 2006

GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary by Cornelius Luca
Daily Forex Market Commentary for September 15, 2006


The dollar closed little changed versus the yen and the franc, but fell against the euro and the pound despite the stronger-than-expected US retail sales data. All eyes will be on the CPI report and then, at the weekend, on the G7 meeting that may mildly touched on the weak yen. Expect further choppy trading today.

Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar rallied to a one-week high of 1.2752 but trimmed gains by the close. Sideways trading should prevail.

Immediate resistance remains at 1.2745. Above 1.2815 there is resistance at 1.2850.

Initial support is seen at 1.2680. That is followed by the area between 1.2631 and 1.2639. Further support looms at 1.2555.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly lower
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen edged lower in a tight range and closed unchanged on Thursday. Expect more of the same, especially with Japan closed on Monday.

The pair has initial support at 117.40. Strong support follows at 116.85 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35. Below 115.80, good support remains at 115.50, from a 50-pip pivot, which targets 116.00 and 115.00.

Immediate resistance is at 117.95. Strong resistance remains at 118.25 from a 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75. 118.25 is unlikely to break. Pivotal resistance follows at 119.00.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied to an eight-day high of 1.8917 on Thursday but reduced gains by the close. Expect choppy trading today.

Initial resistance is now seen at 1.8917. Above 1.8955 there is resistance at 1.9060 and at 1.9090.

Immediate support is now pegged at 1.8795. That??™s followed by 1.8720. Strong support follows at 1.8650.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss recouped early losses to close basically unchanged. The overall picture remains mildly bullish, but the short term is mixed.

Initial resistance is at 1.2560 and that??™s followed nearby by a pivotal high at 1.2594. Distant resistance is pegged at 1.2700.

Immediate support is at 1.2440 and that is followed by 1.2410. Distant support is now pegged at 1.2280.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

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