NEWS / Central Banks

Euro jumpy but momentum zero

Daily Currency report for Wednesday September 20 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Sep 18 08:30 Current Account Q2 -$215.0B -$213.5B -$208.7B
Sep 18 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Jul NA NA $75.1
Sep 19 08:30 Building Permits Aug 1745K 1750K 1763K
Sep 19 08:30 Core PPI Aug 0.2% 0.2% -0.3%
Sep 19 08:30 Housing Starts Aug 1765K 1770K 1795K
Sep 19 08:30 PPI Aug 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sep 20 10:30 Crude Inventories 09/15 NA NA -2904K
Sep 20 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Sep 21 08:30 Initial Claims 09/16 315K NA 308K
Sep 21 10:00 Leading Indicators Aug -0.2% -0.2% -0.1%
Sep 21 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Sep 13.0 14.0 18.5

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: Plenty of intraday volatility yesterday, fuelled by geo-political concerns and economic news, but an end result of almost zero momentum. Until we see a concerted increase in daily volatility, we shall have to expect more smallish and fairly random moves around the current levels. Dips should hold above 1.2620, and rallies should eventually take the euro back to 1.2750, with a break above there probably triggering a stronger move to 1.2850/1.2900. As the euro is lagging behind the pound, perhaps it will try to catch up this week.

Strategy today: Buy at 1.2680/50, stops below 1.2620, target 1.2750 and then 1.2850

Chart: Still holding above support at 1.2630.