NEWS / Foreign Debt

Euro consolidating in a "diamond" reversal pattern

Daily Currency report for Thursday September 21 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Sep 18 08:30 Current Account Q2 -$215.0B -$213.5B -$208.7B
Sep 18 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Jul NA NA $75.1
Sep 19 08:30 Building Permits Aug 1745K 1750K 1763K
Sep 19 08:30 Core PPI Aug 0.2% 0.2% -0.3%
Sep 19 08:30 Housing Starts Aug 1765K 1770K 1795K
Sep 19 08:30 PPI Aug 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sep 20 10:30 Crude Inventories 09/15 NA NA -2904K
Sep 20 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Sep 21 08:30 Initial Claims 09/16 315K NA 308K
Sep 21 10:00 Leading Indicators Aug -0.2% -0.2% -0.1%
Sep 21 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Sep 13.0 14.0 18.5

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: Back up to 1.2700, but no fireworks, and this is becoming boring. That means that an increase in volatility is likely as the week draws to an end and traders become frustrated with their positions. Until then, we shall have to expect more smallish and fairly random moves around the current levels. Dips should hold above 1.2620, and rallies should eventually take the euro back to 1.2750, with a break above there probably triggering a stronger move to 1.2850/1.2900. As the euro is lagging behind the pound, perhaps it will try to catch up this week.

Strategy today: Buy at 1.2700/1.2680, stops below 1.2620, target 1.2750 and then 1.2850

Chart: No change, but possibly a small "diamond" reversal pattern forming...