NEWS / European Community

Dollar drops as Philadelphia Fed Survey turns negative

By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader Yesterdays News and Events: The Dollar fell after the September Philadelphia Fed Survey report showed business activity slowing down in the US mid-Atlantic region for the first time in over three years. The Dollar was already under pressure after the Fed kept rates unchanged and said inflation risks were moderating. The report posted the first negative reading since April 2003 supporting expectations the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again in 2006. EurUsd went up 0.8% to 1.2798 from low 1.2697, the biggest one-day advance in two months. UsdJpy dropped from 117.18 to 116.80 before figures, and declined to 116.22 low; 0.9% biggest fall in one day since early September. Gbpusd rose from 1.8900 to 1.9040, it was already set for a bullish tone hitting 1.8996 before US number. Dealers said more weak economic data could bring more trouble for the Dollar in the next few months. UsdZar, dollar slipped to a three year low today 7.6948, extending losses made this month by heavy sell offs across emerging markets and news of growing current account deficit. Todays Key Issues: At 9:00 GMT Euro Zone Industrial New Orders expected 1% vs -2.5% (MoM) and 8.4% vs 5.2% (YoY). Little pause before next week new waves of numbers. The Risk Today: EurUsd has finally cleared the range high breaking above 1.2755. Extending this new trend, it is now seen for a stronger climb to 1.2832 and further advanced 1.2880. Key support lies at the recent 1.2630 low. Usdchf yesterday's loss together with a bearish momentum set-up lets us expect further loss towards 1.2380 (61.8% retracement of the 1.2228-1.2625). The next support is base of the broader range at 1.2183. Minor resistance is 1.2545. GBPUSD maintains a firmer intraday tone having cleared 1.8920 former resistance. The next key resistance and pivot point is still before heading for 1.9146 key level. Support pivot is now at 1.8734 where a break there could reinstate a bearish theme. USDJPY couldn??™t approach the trendline resistance at 118.50. This is weighting on the Usd. Having break support 116.60, we should expect more weakness targeting 115.50 support. Minor resistance is now 117.50. Resistance and Support: EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF 1.2950 K 1.9220 M 119.40 T 1.2640 T 1.2880 S 1.9146  K 118.50 S 1.2545 M 1.2832 M 1.9094 P 117.50 M 1.2380 M 1.2827 1.9052 116.36 1.2350 1.2755 M 1.8920 M 115.50 S 1.2310 K 1.2630 K 1.8734 P 114.75 S 1.2275 M 1.2560 T 1.8493 T 114.20 S 1.2183 T S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot