GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary by Cornelius Luca
Daily Forex Market Commentary for September 26, 2006
The dollar managed to pare losses and close little changed on Monday. The US existing homes sales report was not as bad as expected, so it didn??™t hurt the buck for long. The market needs some fresh factors, but for now the euro should be under pressure if the Ifo report is nearly as weak as the ZEW report was.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar swerved both ways but closed lower on Monday. The selling pressure should continue today, as well, but only a weak Ifo report would take it below the bottom of the rising channel at 1.2730
Below 1.2730 support looms at 1.2705. Next levels are at 1.2670 and then at 1.2630.
Immediate resistance is now pegged at 1.2760. The next good level is at 1.2830. That??™s followed by 1.2875.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly lower
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly lower
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen traded sideways and closed unchanged on Monday. Like I mentioned in the previous report, it may have formed a bearish reversal formation last week but has probably found a decent floor and should stabilize before another sell-off may occur.
The pair still has initial support at 116.06. Below 115.80, good support remains at 115.50, from a 50-pip pivot, which targets 116.00 and 115.00.
Initial resistance is at 116.85 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar climbed to a three-week high of 1.9071 on Monday but then gave up most of these gains. It should see some selling pressure today.
Immediate support is at 1.8940 and that??™s followed by 1.8900. Further support is at 1.8850.
Initial resistance is seen at 1.9060. Above 1.9100 there is resistance at 1.9140.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly lower
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss reversed early losses that saw it hit a near three-week low at 1.2290 and closed virtually unchanged on Monday as well. The upside is favored first.
Above 1.2430, dollar/Swiss franc has resistance at 1.2500.
Initial support is at 1.2350. Below 1.2290, there is a pivotal low at 1.2225. Further support is at 1.2180.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
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