NEWS / Trade Policy

Euro breaks higher but little follow through

Daily Currency report for Monday September 25 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Sep 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Aug 6.25M 6.25M 6.33M
Sep 26 10:00 Consumer Confidence Sep 105.0 102.5 99.6
Sep 27 08:30 Durable Orders Aug 1.5% 0.8% -2.5%
Sep 27 10:00 New Home Sales Aug 1020K 1050K 1072K
Sep 27 10:30 Crude Inventories 09/22 NA NA -2848K
Sep 28 08:30 Chain Deflator-Final Q2 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
Sep 28 08:30 GDP-Final Q2 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
Sep 28 08:30 Initial Claims 09/23 315K NA 318K
Sep 28 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Aug 32 32 32
Sep 29 08:30 Personal Income Aug 0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
Sep 29 08:30 Personal Spending Aug 0.2% 0.2% 0.8%
Sep 29 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Sep 84.4 85.0 84.4
Sep 29 10:00 Chicago PMI Sep 56.5 57.0 57.1

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: The break above 1.2750 last week was important, when the euro rallied above retracement resistance and the 50 day moving average at around 1.2750. Unfortunately, there was little follow through and the "Doji" candle on Friday suggests we may have a little more consolidation at these levels before moving on higher. Dips should be contained above 1.2750 and certainly 1.2700, allowing the euro to pick up a little more bullish momentum this week, possibly reaching 1.2950/1.3000.

Strategy today: Buy at 1.2740/1.2720, stops below 1.2700, target 1.2850

Chart: Breaking higher but struggling to maintain momentum.