NEWS / Foreign Debt

Daily Forex Market Commentary for September 27, 2006

GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary by Cornelius Luca
Forex Market Commentary for September 27, 2006


The dollar rallied across the board on Tuesday following evidence that the US economy is still showing decent signs of strength. The US currency was underpinned by news that the consumer confidence index rose to 104.5 in September from 100.2 in August. But don??™t get too excited, as the dollar is probing significant resistances here and Wednesday will likely see a very weak US housing sales report.

Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar smashed bellow the bottom of the rising channel at 1.2730 on its way to a one-week low of 1.2660 on Tuesday before trimming losses. The decline seems overdone, so the upside is favored today.

Below 1.2660 support is now seen at 1.2630. Next levels are at 1.2515 and then from a pivotal low at 1.2460.

Immediate resistance is pegged at 1.2705. The next levels are at 1.2730 and 1.2755. There is a pivotal high at 1.2830.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly higher
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly lower
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen rallied on Tuesday to erase most of the losses incurred on Thursday. There is a Fibonacci retracement level at 117.25 and only a break above it would warrant further strength. The key level today is at 116.85 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35.

Initial resistance is between 117.25 and 117.35. Above this area, good resistance remains at 118.25 from another 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75. Distant resistance is still seen in the 119.10 area.

Below 116.60 the pair still has initial support at 116.35 and that??™s followed by 116.06. Below 115.80, good support remains at 115.50, from a 50-pip pivot, which targets 116.00 and 115.00.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar saw some selling pressure on Tuesday, as expected, but remained above the bottom of its rising channel. Only a break below this trendline support at 1.8910 would signal a further decline.

If successful, look for a test of the support at 1.8860. Below 1.8800, further support is at 1.8765.

Initial resistance is seen at 1.8990. That??™s followed by 1.9020 and 1.9060. Above 1.9100 there is resistance at 1.9140.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss rallied early on Tuesday to as high as 1.2464 before trimming gains. The upside seems limited, but it still is favored first.

Above 1.2464, dollar/Swiss franc has resistance at 1.2500. Next levels are at 1.2540 and 1.2580.

Initial support is at 1.2400. That??™s followed by 1.2350. Below 1.2290, there is a pivotal low at 1.2225. Further support is at 1.2180.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

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