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Daily Forex Market Commentary for September 28, 2006

GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary by Cornelius Luca
Daily Forex Market Commentary for September 28, 2006


The dollar rallied versus the pound and the yen on Wednesday but made little progress against the euro and the franc. The US housing sales report was a wash, if you look at both the current month and the previous month??™s revision. The euro crosses should lead the way today, with the dollar still looking divergent.

Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar traded sideways in a tight range and within an inside range after nailing a one-week low of 1.2660 on Tuesday. The decline remains overdone, so the upside is favored today as well.

Immediate resistance is pegged at 1.2730. The next level is 1.2755. There is a pivotal high at 1.2830.

Below 1.2660 support is now seen at 1.2630. Next levels are at 1.2515 and then from a pivotal low at 1.2460.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly higher
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly lower
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen rallied on Wednesday as well to hit a one-week high at 117.63. The upside is mildly favored.

Initial resistance is at 117.95. Above it, good resistance remains at 118.25 from another 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75. Distant resistance is still seen in the 119.10 area.

There is a Fibonacci retracement level at 117.25. The key support today is at 116.85 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35. That??™s followed by 116.06. Below 115.80, good support remains at 115.50, from a 50-pip pivot, which targets 116.00 and 115.00.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar saw further selling pressure on Wednesday after breaking below this trendline support at 1.8910. The additional decline was helped by a weaker-than-forecast GDP report.

The big support is now at 1.8855. A break below it would signal an additional decline to 1.8800. Further support is at 1.8765.

Initial resistance is seen at 1.8935. The next level is at 1.8990 and that??™s followed by 1.9020 and 1.9060. Above 1.9100 there is resistance at 1.9140.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss struggled higher, as the upside was limited, and trimmed gains by the close. It should consolidate today.

Above 1.2470, dollar/Swiss franc still has resistance at 1.2500. Next levels are at 1.2540 and 1.2580.

Initial support is at 1.2400. That??™s followed by 1.2350. Below 1.2290, there is a pivotal low at 1.2225. Further support is at 1.2180.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

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