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09:48 2006/10/02

NEWS / Government Ministries

Currency report: Dollar regains as zoty dips

The bullish US bond market and, to a lesser extent, growth on Wall Street are the main reasons for a strengthening in the US currency last week.

US stocks and treasuries met huge demand from investment funds that recently collected their long-term gains from the commodity market and some gains from emerging markets. Despite more frequent signals that growth is continuing to slide (Q2 growth was 2.6 percent) the US dollar remained unaffected.

 

In the upcoming weeks, the debt-market situation will continue to determine the price of the dollar. There is some evidence that the market boom in bonds will further strengthen the dollar. As a result, EUR/USD might slump to USD1.25, GBP/USD to USD1.85 and USD/CHF might test CHF1.28. Before that, a slight weakening of dollar is expected from a correction on the debt market and an interest-rate increase by the European Central Bank on October 5.

 

The z?oty finished the week slightly down against against the dollar and stable against the euro. These changes are related to a weakening of the euro against the dollar and political turmoil in Poland, which will play a key role in EUR/PLN and USD/PLN levels in the nearest days.

 

Marcin R Kiepas

X-Trade Brokers DM SA

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