GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary By Cornelius Luca, Currencies Analyst, Global Forex Trading
Forex Market Commentary for October 3, 2006
The dollar started the fourth quarter on a weak and this was in line with expectations. Following some residual decline, the US currency should attempt to resume its upmove.
Euro/dollar
One day after sinking to an 11-day low, euro/dollar rallied sharply to a four-day high of 1.2757 on Monday. It should make one more up before likely heading lower again,
There is immediate resistance at 1.2760 and the euro/dollar will probably hold below it at least on a closing basis. If not, look for a further upmove to 1.2795. Further resistance remains at 1.2830.
Below the area between 1.2710 and 1.2700, support is now seen at 1.2675. Distant support is at 1.2630.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly higher
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly lower
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen rallied further very early on Monday and briefly and marginally surpassed the key resistance at 118.25 below tanking. The upside remains capped for now, as I said in the previous report, but not sure for how long.
Immediate support comes from a Fibonacci retracement level at 117.25. The key support today is at 116.85 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35. That??™s followed by 116.06.
Key resistance remains at 118.25 from another 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75. Distant resistance is still seen in the 119.10 area.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
After sinking to an 18-day low on Friday, sterling/dollar rallied sharply on Monday to erase the losses made in the previous two days. The outlook remains mildly negative, but on Tuesday it should go further up, albeit at a reduced pace.
Initial resistance is seen at 1.8910. Above 1.8975 distant resistance is at 1.9055.
Good support is at 1.8800. That??™s followed by 1.8715 and 1.8675. There is a pivot at 1.8635.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly higher
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell sharply on Tuesday to erase all of the gains made in the previous two days. The selling pressure should persist today, but not for long.
Below 1.2400, the pair has support at 1.2350. The next level comes at 1.2290.
Above 1.2455, dollar/Swiss franc retains resistance at 1.2500. Distant resistance is at 1.2620.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
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