NEWS / Trade Policy

Daily Forex Market Commentary

GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary by Cornelius Luca
Forex Market Commentary for October 6, 2006


The dollar rallied against the European currencies but fell versus the yen, as cross trading dominated before the US non-farm payrolls report. Be prepared for high volatility after the release of this figure.

Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar declined on Thursday but got stuck in an inside range. There was little reaction to the obvious news that the ECB hiked rates today by 25 basis points to 3.25% - and signaled another similar move in December.

Below 1.2668, support remains seen at 1.2630. Distant support is at 1.2560.

There is immediate resistance at 1.2750. If this level gives way, look for a further upmove to 1.2795. Further and pivotal resistance remains at 1.2830.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly higher
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly lower
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen made the expected decline on Thursday but should now find its footing. This should mean more sideways trading.

Above 117.95, key resistance remains at 118.25 from another 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75. Distant resistance is still seen in the 119.10 area.

Immediate support still comes between 117.35 and 117.25. The key support today is at 116.85 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35. That??™s followed by 116.06.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar fell for most of the day on Thursday but should struggle higher. The outlook remains mixed.

Good support is now seen at 1.8750. This level is followed by 1.8715 and 1.8675. There is a pivot at 1.8635.

Initial resistance comes at 1.8850. Next level is seen at 1.8910. Above 1.8975 distant resistance comes at 1.9055.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss advanced further on Thursday but should see sideways to lower trading today.

Initial support is at 1.2505. Next level is at 1.2450. Below 1.2400, the pair has support at 1.2350. The next level comes at 1.2290.

Above 1.25660, dollar/Swiss franc has resistance at around 1.2600. Distant resistance is at 1.2620.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly lower
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

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