NEWS / Indicators

Forex and Commodity Market Commentary and Analysis (9 October 2006)

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The euro gained marginal ground vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2610 level and was supported around the $1.2585 level. Technically, today??™s intraday low was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.2980 to $1.2460. Traders are still talking about Friday??™s mixed batch of U.S. employment data that saw relatively weak jobs creation in September and significant upward revisions for previous months and increasing wage pressures. These data have some traders believing the Federal Open Market Committee is not ready to definitively declare an end to its long-term tightening cycle. Minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday and will be scrutinized to see if inflation concerns or fears of an economic slowdown are of greater concern to traders. Market activity is expected to be quiet during the North American session today on account of a partial U.S. market holiday. In eurozone news, German industrial output climbed 1.9% m/m in August, more-than-expected, and was up 7.2% y/y. Also, Germany??™s August trade surplus printed at ?‚¬11.2 billion, down from July??™s ?‚¬13.2 billion level. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.2560 level.

??/ CNY

The yen depreciated marginally vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ??119.25 level and was supported around the ??118.85 level. Today??™s intraday high represents the pair??™s strongest showing since 3 February of this year. The yen was driven to multi-month lows after North Korea tested its nuclear capabilities with an underground explosion, as expected. The global community including South Korea, China, Russia, Japan, and the U.S. condemned the action and the yen came off on account of Japan??™s proximity to the Korean peninsula. Japanese Prime Minister Abe is now visiting Seoul in a bid to improve relations between Japan and South Korea. IMM net short yen positions are now at their highest level since at least 2000. Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates unchanged with its Policy Board convenes this week. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.08% to close at ??16,436.06. Dollar bids are cited around the ??118.00/ ??117.25 levels. The euro moved higher vis-? -vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ??150.25 level and was supported around the ??149.60 level. The British pound moved lower vis-? -vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ??222.05 level while the Swiss franc gained marginal ground vis-? -vis the yen and tested offers around the ??94.70 level. The Chinese yuan appreciated vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 7.8995 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 7.9041, and at CNY 7.9000 in the exchange-traded market. Xinhua reported China??™s GDP may reach US$ 3.2 trillion in 2010. Data released in China today saw the Q3 business climate index up 4.7 points y/y.

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The British pound depreciated sharply vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.8635 level and was capped around the $1.8710 level. Technically, today??™s intraday high was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.9090 to $1.8600. Data released in the U.K. today saw September input prices fall 1.8% m/m and 5.2% y/y. The monthly decline was the largest in nearly two years. Core output prices were up 0.1% m/m and down 2.0% y/y. These data could lessen the pressure on Bank of England??™s Monetary Policy Committee to tighten interest rates though most traders expect the MPC to lift the repo rate next month. NIESR reported the U.K. economy likely expanded below its long-run rate in Q3. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.8535 level. The euro appreciated vis-? -vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ?‚¤0.6760 level and was supported around the ?‚¤0.6730 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc was little-changed vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.2590 level and was capped around the CHF 1.2620 level. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.2685/ 1.2735 levels. The euro moved higher vis-? -vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.5895 level while the British pound came off vis-? -vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 2.3495 level.

AUD

The Australian dollar moved higher vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the Aussie tested offers around the US$ 0.7450 level and was supported around the $0.7415 level. Data released in Australia today saw the September construction performance index improve to 53.1 while September ANZ job advertisements gained 0.3% m/m and 20.4% y/y. Also, NAB??™s September SME survey evidenced improving business conditions. Australian dollar bids are cited around the US$ 0.7405 level.

CAD

The Canadian dollar rallied vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the C$ 1.1210 level and was capped around the C$ 1.1265 level. Stops were reached below the C$ 1.1240 level, representing the 23.6% retracement of the move from C$ 1.1030 to C$ 1.1305. Canadian financial markets will reopen after today??™s Thanksgiving holiday. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the C$ 1.1295 level.

NZD

The New Zealand dollar weakened vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the kiwi tested bids around the US$ 0.6540 level and was capped around the $0.6585 level. New Zealand dollar offers are cited around the US$0.6685 level.

Gold/ Silver

Gold gained ground vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the yellow metal tested offers around the $581.03 level and was supported around the $572.95 level. Traders moved into gold after North Korea conducted an underground nuclear test. Silver moved higher vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar as the pair tested offers around the $11.47 level and was supported around the $11.12 level.

Crude Oil

Crude oil appreciated vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as light, sweet NYMEX crude oil futures for November delivery tested offers around the US$ 61.42 level and was supported around the $59.72 level. OPEC is expected to reduce daily output by about one million barrels per day and traders bid crude higher after North Korea tested its nuclear capabilities. Iran also reiterated it will not suspend its nuclear ambitions.