By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader |
Yesterdays News and Events:
 The Dollar rose broadly for the sixth consecutive session and hit a 2006 high against the Yen boosted by the view that US economy may not be as weak as initially thought. Rising Treasury yields also provided dollar support; the Benchmark 10-year yield hit a three-week high, adding more doubt to investors that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in the next few months. Eurusd went down to 1.2519 low from Tuesday early high 1.2615. UsdJpy went up 0.73% from 118.91 morning low to 119.78 high, near the psychologically important 120 level. Usdchf moved just over the five-month peak 1.2598, up 0.7% yesterday. GB August Trade Balance reduced by -6.7B and revised in July at -6.8B from -6.34B. New housing starts in Canada fell in September at 211k below the forecast for 222k. Today release of minutes from the Fed??™s September 20 policy meeting might show officials could be more worried about inflation than slow growth. Recent comments from Fed officials have indeed focused on price pressures. |
Todays Key Issues:
ECB??™s President Trichet speaks on Economic, Financial integration. EZ Growth Domestic Product due at 9:00 GMT is expected 0.9% unchanged (QoQ) and 2.6% unchanged (YoY). CAD August New Housing Price Index due at 12:30 GMT is expected 1% vs 1.1%. US Sept Minutes of FOMC Meeting are released at 18:00 GMT.
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The Risk Today: Looking at EurUsd recent decline, immediate attention is on 1.2450 which is likely to come under pressure with follow-through on Dollar gains. A break of 1.2450 will open the door for further downtrend. We have cleared 1.2570support and looking now for a move towards 1.2450, the multi months trading range. Lower than that, we would spot 1.2400 (50% retracement of 1.1825-1.2980), followed by 1.2325 (61.8% of 1.1638 ??“ 1.2980). Below those levels, there is little significant support till 1.2150. Few days ago, UsdJpy broke the key multi-year trend-line resistant at 118.50 initiating a move which took over 119.40 (February high) resistance and targeting the psychologically important 120 level. GbpUsd broke the 1.8601 key support, opening the door toward 1.8490 (61.8% retracement of 1.8090-1.9146. Further downtrend would reinforce the bear market till 1.8090 (June low). UsdChf is expected to extend recent gains towards 1.2736 (61.8% retracement of the 1.3241 to 1.1919) and thereafter targeting 1.2930 (76.4% retracement). |
Resistance and Support: | EURUSD | GBPUSD | USDJPY | USDCHF | | 1.2880 K | 1.9144 T | 121.40 T | 1.2800 S | | 1.2630 P | 1.8901 S | 120.74 M | 1.2736 P | | 1.2570 S | 1.8601 K | 120.00 P | 1.2625 S | | 1.2542 | 1.8544 | 119.63 | 1.2625 | | 1.2450 T | 1.8490 S | 118.50 S | 1.2490 M | | 1.2400 S | 1.8400 T | 117.32 P | 1.2400 K | | 1.2325 S | 1.8090 K | 116.06 T | 1.2287 S | | S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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