NEWS / Central Banks

Euro turns bullish - dollar slips across the board

Daily Currency report for Friday October 20 2006

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Oct 16 08:30 NY Empire State Index Oct 13.0 12.0 13.8
Oct 17 08:30 PPI Sep -0.8% -0.6% 0.1%
Oct 17 08:30 Core PPI Sep 0.3% 0.2% -0.4%
Oct 17 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Aug NA $50.0B $32.9B
Oct 17 09:15 Industrial Production Sep -0.2% 0.0% -0.1%
Oct 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Sep 82.2% 82.3% 82.4%
Oct 18 08:30 CPI Sep -0.3% -0.3% 0.2%
Oct 18 08:30 Core CPI Sep 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Oct 18 08:30 Housing Starts Sep 1640K 1650K 1665K
Oct 18 08:30 Building Permits Sep 1685K 1715K 1727K
Oct 18 10:30 Crude Inventories 10/13 NA NA 2408K
Oct 19 08:30 Initial Claims 10/14 310K NA 308K
Oct 19 10:00 Leading Indicators Sep 0.3% 0.3% -0.2%
Oct 19 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Oct 8.0 6.5 -0.4

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2480

Support levels: 1.2580-1.2540

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The Euro has dropped below immediate support at 1.2670, but remains in the broader 1.2450 - 1.2950 range which has dominated since June. This means range trading should continue until the Euro breaks out one way or the other.

Today: At last a bit of action as the euro rallies past 1.2600 and forms (so far) a reversal on weekly charts. We shall now be looking for opportunities to buy on dips, which should be around 1.2580 - 1.2540 today, if seen. First target for the next leg upwards is 1.2700 (10 week MA and Fibonacci retracement level) and then 1.2800.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart: