NEWS / Monetary Policy

Daily Forex Market Commentary for October 26, 2006

Forex Market Commentary for October 26, 2006
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary by Cornelius Luca


The dollar fell more than expected on Wednesday after rebounding two days earlier. With the US elections two weeks away and the economy in reasonably good shape, but bound to weaken, the Fed left rates unchanged. The technical rally in oil and the high levels in the Dow are a tad worrisome at this point. The dollar should trade mixed to lower today.

Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar recovered Monday's losses but let's see how much higher it can get today.

Initial resistance is at 1.2650. Above this level, resistance is seen at 1.2710. Strong resistance is then seen at 1.2765, but the pair should not challenge it.

Immediate support is at 1.2685. If 1.2520 breaks, then expect the euro/dollar to challenge 1.2490. That could lead to a test of the pivotal low at 1.2460.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bullish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen marched fell on Tuesday after failing to even approach 120.

Below 118.75, dollar/yen has support at 118.25 by another 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75. Distant support is at 116.85 by a 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35

Strong resistance remains at 119.65 from a 50-point pivot that targets 119.15 and 120.15. If the defense of the KO options at 120 is somehow surpassed, expect heavy hunting for stop-loss orders. Above 120.15, resistance is seen at 120.50.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar advanced on Wednesday and recovereed more of the Monday's loses. The upside lookks fairly limited.

Above 1.8800 there is a pitotal level at 1.8858.. Further resistance is seen at 1.8890.

Immediate support is at 1.8745. Further supportis at 1.8673. That is followed by 1.8660 and 1.8605. Distant support is at 1.8514.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss edged lower on Wednesday. Again, it would take a break above 1.2700 to convince us that this upmove has legs, but the odds are better for a mild decline.

Above 1.2700, the pair retains a pivotal high at 1.2770. Further resistance is at 1.2818.

Below 1.2610, dollar/Swiss franc has support at 1.2582. Only a break below 1.2525 would signal aggressive weakness and a test of 1.2470.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

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