NEWS / Fiscal Policy, Budget

Daily Forex Market Commentary for October 31, 2006

Forex Market Commentary for October 31, 2006
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary by Cornelius Luca


The dollar consolidated on Monday but fell against the pound, which was helped by stronk UK data. The dollar should edged higher today before encountering further weakness.

Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar made little progress on Monday after surging to a three-week high of 1.2749 on Friday and got stuck in an inside range. It should now edge lower.

Above 1.2765, the pair retains resistance at 1.2830. Strong resistance is then seen at 1.2880.

Below 1.2705, the euro/dollar has support at 1.2660. Next supports looms at 1.2625 and 1.2590..

Oscillators are mixed

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen
The dollar/yen remaned glued to the bottom of Friday's range, but should now recover.

Above 117.75, the pair sees resistance at 118.25 from another 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75. Strong resistance is at 119.86. If the defense of the KO options at 120 is somehow surpassed, which I strongly doubt, expect heavy hunting for stop-loss orders.

Initial support is 117.14. Dollar/yen then has support at 116.85 by a 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bullish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rmarched higher on Monday to reach a five-week high of 1.9040, and this strength was generated by a strong UK housing report. The pair is overbought, but only reverse long position on a confirmed decline.

Above 1.9040, Cable has pivotal resistance at 1.9070. Next pivotal highs are at 1.9090 and 1.9144.

If the pound fails to exceed 1.9040, then look for a retracement to 1.8955. Only a break below 1.8920 would signal the formation of a peak. The pair would then decline further toward the 1.8800 area.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss was hemmed in to Friday's lows, but this weakness should pause at least temporarily.

Initial resistance is at 1.2530. That is followed by 1.2590. Above 1.2635, the pair has resistance at 1.2680.

Below 1.2467, dollar/Swiss franc retainssupport at 1.2410. A close below the strong 1.2380 level would accelerate the decline.

Oscillators are falling

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

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