NEWS / Fiscal Policy, Budget

Dollar slides after Chicago PMI shows slower growth.

By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader Yesterdays News and Events: The Conference Board??™s consumer confidence index fell to 105.4 in October, from a revised 105.9 in September, well below the consensus of 107.80. Given the big fall in gasoline prices, the market was expecting confidence to rebound sharply this month and shows sign of an end of the slowing growth. In addition, the Chicago PMI fell to 53.5 in October, much lower than the 58 low range expectations, from 62.1 in September. After those weak US economic data, Dollar fell to a one-month low against major currencies, which reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates by the end of the year. The Dollar index (measure against six liquid currencies) fell 0.3% to 85.32; the lowest since late September. The Dollar fell to a one-month low against major currencies; Eurusd rose 0.5% intraday to 1.2784 before retracting to 1.2760. UsdJpy fell 0.7% to 116.63 to finally close to 116.95. For the month, UsdJpy is down 2.3%. Focus will be now shifted on Friday??™s release of US non-farms payrolls report. Todays Key Issues: GB PMI Manufacturing Survey October due at 9:30 GMT is expected 52.5 to 54.9 vs 54.4. US ADP October Employment Change due at 13:15 GMT is expected 120k vs 78K. Are due at 15:00 GMT; US September Construction Spending expected 0.1% vs 0.3% (MoM), US ISM October Manufacturing expected 53 vs 52.9 and ISM Price Paid expected 58 vs 61. At 17:00 GMT, US Feds Bernanke speaks to Opportunity Finance Network in Washington. The Risk Today: EURUSD overcame 1.2750 on Tuesday and attention now turns to 1.2880 key level. While a break of this level would be needed to confirm the recent advance and target 1.2941. The immediate outlook remains positive above 1.2660. USDCHF remains softer following last week's break down of 1.2550. The risk remains 1.2400 (76.4% retracement of the 1.2291 to 1.2771 advance). A break there would expose 1.2287 (late Sep low). Renewed upside over 1.2550 high is now needed to relieve near-term bearish sentiment. GBPUSD is cautiously bullish as Sterling is testing 1.9075 resistance and looking at next of resistance 1.9092 (late Aug high) and 1.9144. On the down side, weakness under 1.8952 would be necessary to threaten the bullish tone. After recent break down of the lower trend support; USDJPY is likely to remain heavy below 118.05. More weakness could come at 116.60 and further target to 116.06 next trendline. Resistance and Support: EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF 1.2941 T 1.9144 K 120.00 P 1.2800 T 1.2880 K 1.9092 S 119.90 S 1.2736 S 1.2750 S 1.9075 S 118.05 M 1.2550 P 1.2745 1.9064 117.09 1.2454 1.2660 M 1.9030 S 117.16 M 1.2400 K 1.2620 S 1.8874 M 116.60 M 1.2287 S 1.2450 T 1.8601 P 116.06 T 1.2185 T S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot