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FOREX: GVI Monthly Forex Survey Results

In the latest monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion website, sentiment for the USD against the EUR was virtually unchanged. The three-month ahead mean forecast for EUR/USD was 1.2804 from 1.2809 a month earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (October 30 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.2730.

The GVI-Cumino Euro bull index (Range 0-100; 0 = most bearish, 100 = most bullish, 50 = neutral) was steady in the EUR/USD at 58 from 56 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.

The USD/JPY mean dollar forecast turned sharply lower to 114.86 from 116.16 one month ago. The USD/JPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 117.42. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index turned more USD bearish. It was 30 after 41.

Traders expect the price of crude oil (WTI) to close at $58.33 in three-months time from the current spot vs. the previous $63.17 estimate.

In a special question, participants were asked if they thought that the EUR/JPY had peaked for 2006. 61% said yes while 29% said no.

For complete detailed survey results including history see: