NEWS / Monetary Policy

Dollar slides after ISM data suggested slower growth again.

By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader Yesterdays News and Events: The Dollar fell against major currencies on Wednesday on news US manufacturing growth slowed and inflation pressures eased in October; this renewed some expectations the next move in US interest rates could be a cut. The US ISM manufacturing index dropped to a 3-year low of 51.2 in October, from 52.9. The consensus forecast pointed to an improvement to 53. Falling energy prices pushed down the ISM Prices Paid Index to a 4 ?? -year low at 47 from 61. The dollar has been trading near a one-month low after reports at 1.2799 against Euro 1.9122 against Gbp and 116.58 against Jpy. A big move came from Canadian dollar which rise to 1.1353 high as Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced plans to tax income trusts. The NOK went a little up against the Dollar and the Euro after Norges Bank raised rates to 3.25% from 3R as expected. Investors focused on comments from the Norwegian Central Bank, which said it sees the deposit rate between 3.25 and 4.25% until March 2007 and that rates may rise further at quicker than awaited. Australian Dollar was also pushed up by investors looking for high-yielding currencies near a 5 ?? -month high at 0.7772 against US dollar. Currency dealers would prefer to stay on the sidelines ahead of Friday??™s US employment data. The payrolls report is expected to show 125k jobs added in October up from 51k in September. Todays Key Issues: Euro-zone October PMI manufacturing Survey due at 9:00 GMT is expected 56.8 vs 56.6. EUR ECB November Announces Interest Rates at 12:45 GMT expected unchanged at 3.25%. Analysts are expecting ECB to signal rate hike in December and probably at least once more increase in the New Year. Mr. Trichet speaks at ECB monthly news conference at 13:30 GMT. Are due at 13:30 GMT; US Non-Farm Productivity (3Q) expected 1.5% vs 1.6%, US unit labor costs (3Q) expected 3.4% vs 4.9%, US Initial Jobless Claims may be unchanged at 308K and US Factory Orders expected 2% vs 0%. The Risk Today: Eurusd recent rally is slowing down after yesterday high 1.2799. But only a break of Wednesday's 1.2742 low would push it in a lower pattern. But even then, strong support holds at 1.2660. USDCHF slipped to within near 1.2400 key support (76.4% retracement of the 1.2291-1.2771 rise). But only a move above Wednesday's 1.2460 and previous day 1.2550 would reject the lately sell-off from 1.2706. Remember that there is little support below 1.2400 till the 1.2287 next support. GBPUSD pushed up near 1.9144 key resistance. Uptrend is slowing down momentum but only a break of 1.9055 would offset upward pressure on this resistance. On the other side, a break of 1.8955 would open the door for a quick correction. In likely higher advance; the next resistance above 1.9144 is 1.9220. USDJPY made another step down in the current trend to 116.59. But as long as the 118.05 Tuesday??™s high keeps holding any up return, focus stays on the downside. There is still little trend support 116.06 below Wednesday's 116.60 low. USDCAD pushed above 1.1325 late Oct high, targeting at 1.1361 (76.4% retracement of the 1.1417-1.1178 decline). Only a move above there would open the door toward 1.1417 mid-Oct high. Resistance and Support: EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF 1.2941 T 1.9220 T 120.00 P 1.2800 T 1.2880 K 1.9144 K 119.90 S 1.2736 S 1.2750 S 1.9092 S 118.05 M 1.2550 P 1.2742 1.9072 117.21 1.2456 1.2660 M 1.9030 S 117.16 M 1.2400 K 1.2620 S 1.8874 M 116.60 M 1.2287 S 1.2450 T 1.8601 P 116.06 T 1.2185 T S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot