NEWS / Government Ministries

Daily Forex Market Commentary for November 2, 2006

Forex Market Commentary for November 2, 2006
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary by Cornelius Luca


The dollar made the expected decline on Wednesday with the help of further weak US economic reports. But it managed to recoup losses by the close and form short-term bullish reversal signals. The dollar is oversold and should attempt to recover today.

Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar stretched to a new high for the uptrend on Wednesday as expected but then gave up ost of its gains. .The pair is overbought and it should now head lower.

Below 1.2735, the euro/dollar has support at 1.2700 and then at 1.2660. Next supports remain at 1.2625 and 1.2590..

Pivotal high is at 1.2798. Above 1.2830, the pair has resistance at 1.2880. Distant resistance is then seen at 1.2940.

Oscillators are rising

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen
The dollar/yen made a mild decline on Wednesday, when it coined a marginally new lo for the downtrend qt 116.54 before recovering these losses. It should now recover on Thursday.

Immediate resistance is at 117.35. Above 117.75, the pair sees resistance at 118.25 from another 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75

Initial support is at 116.85 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35. Dollar/yen then has support at 116.00 and 115.50.

Oscillators are mixed

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar surged to a new high for the uptrend at 1.9134 on Wednesday, as expected, and remains in general demand due to a possible BoE rate hike next week. But is now overbought and should head lower on Thursday.

The pound has support at 1.9040. If this breaks, then look for a retracement to 1.9010 and evenually to 1.8955. Only a break below 1.8920 would signal the formation of a peak. The pair would then decline further toward the 1.8800 area.There is a pivotal high at 1.9144. Above it, Cable has distant resistance at 1.9210 and 1.9250.

Rdesistance is seen at 1.9130. Distant resistance is pegged at 1.9214.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss encounrtered only mild weakness on Wednesday but recoped these losses by the close. The pair is oversold and today should see a recovery..

Initial resistance is at 1.2465. That is followed by 1.2480. The pair then has resistance at 1.2527. Distant resistance is at 1.2635.

Key support is at 1.2420. A break below 1.2390 is needed to suggest a further decline to 1.2340 and 1.2290. Dollar/Swiss franc has distant support at 1.2230.

Oscillators are falling

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

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