NEWS / Fiscal Policy, Budget

Daily Forex Market Commentary for November 3, 2006

Forex Market Commentary for November 3, 2006
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary by Cornelius Luca


The dollar saw the expected upmove only in early trading and then it gave back most of its gains. This cautious approach makes sense ahead of the release of the US unemployment report at 13:30 GMT. As always, be very careful as the release of this reading generates high volatility and watch for revisions. The directional field is wide open.

Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar traded sideways and closed unchanged on Thursday. The pair is overbought but this Friday is not the day to trade based on that.

Below 1.2735, the euro/dollar still has support at 1.2700 and then at 1.2660. Next supports remain at 1.2625 and 1.2590..

Pivotal high is still pegged at 1.2798. Above 1.2830, the pair has resistance at 1.2880. Distant resistance is then seen at 1.2940.

Oscillators are rising

NEAR-TERM: Either way
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen
The dollar/yen made the expected upmove on Thursday and closed with smal gains. Today it can swing either and both ways.

Immediate resistance remains at 117.35. Above 117.75, the pair sees resistance at 118.25 from another 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75

Initial support is at 116.85 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35. Dollar/yen then has support at 116.00 and 115.50.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Either way
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar made the expected decline on Thursday but trimmed losses that spelled bearish reversal. With the non-farm-payrolls being released today and a possible BoE rate hike next week it is hard to call for a big decline for the overbought pair here.

The pound still has support at 1.9040. If this breaks, then look for a retracement to 1.9010 and evenually to 1.8955. Only a break below 1.8920 would signal the formation of a peak. The pair would then decline further toward the 1.8800 area.There is a pivotal high at 1.9144. Above it, Cable has distant resistance at 1.9210 and 1.9250.

Rdesistance is seen at 1.9130. Distant resistance is pegged at 1.9214.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Either way
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss headed higher on Thursday, as expected, but trimmed gains by the close. The pair is still oversold, but today it can spike either way.

Initial resistance is at 1.2480. The pair then has resistance at 1.2527. Distant resistance is at 1.2635.

Key support remains at 1.2420. A break below 1.2390 is needed to suggest a further decline to 1.2340 and 1.2290. Dollar/Swiss franc has distant support at 1.2230.

Oscillators are falling

NEAR-TERM: Either way
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

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