NEWS / Monetary Policy

Daily Forex Market Commentaryfor November 17, 2006

GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary for November 17, 2006
Forex Market Commentary by Cornelius Luca, Currencies Analyst, GFT


The dollar made little progress against the European currencies, while falling against the yen on Tuesday. It performed relatively well, given the weak set of US data. There is a bearlish bias for the dollar today, in line with its negative medium-term outlook.

Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar made aggressive moves both ways on Tuesday, but when the dust settled, it closed litle changed. Both the short-term and the medium-term outlooks remain positive.

Below the significant 1.2790 level, the pair still has support at 1.2765 and 1.2730. Strong support follows at 1.2700.

Above 1.2847, resistance is stacked at 1.2900. 1.2938 and 1.2955. Next strong resistance is naturally pegged at 1.3000.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen closed lower on Tuesday, but off its lows, and got stuck in an inside range. The pair remains at the bottom of its medium-term uptrend and only a close below 117.10 would signal the break of the trendline support. Given the strong GDP for the third quarter and the upward revision of the second quarter, there is a chance of this happening.

Below 117.10, dollar/yen then has support at 116.85 by a 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35.

Initial resistance is at 117.90. Strong resistance remains at 118.25 from another 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75. Strong resistance is at 119.86

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar fell to an 18-day low on Tuesday, and this weakeness was expected. Once again, further mixed is favored on Wednesday, the medium-term outlook remains positive.

Initial support comes at 1.8920. Next levels are 1.8875 and 1.8850. Distant support is pegged at 1.8900 to confirm a sustained decline.

Immediate resistance is at 1.9010 and the next big level is at 1.9065. That's followed by 1.9100 and 1.9176. Above this level Cable would be on its way to 1.9275, but this is less likely.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc edged higher on Tuesday, as expected. The pair should consolidate today, but the medium-term outlook remains negative.

Initial resistance remainsbetween 1.2490 and 1.2500. Next levels are at 1.2580 and 1.2620. Further resistance is pegged at 1.2700.

Immediate support is at 1.2405. Further down there is 1.2360. Below 1.2345, support now lies at 1.2250.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.