NEWS / Indicators

Forex and Commodity Market Commentary and Analysis (21 November 2006)

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The euro gained marginal ground vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2840 level and was supported around the $1.2805 level. Today??™s intraday range was quite tight and follows yesterday??™s 50-pip range. Traders are talking about yesterday??™s National Association of Realtors existing home sales data that saw sales decline in 38 states during the summer, off 12.7% y/y. Thursday??™s U.S. market holiday and the prospect of a long holiday weekend have zapped some liquidity from the market. Comments from European Central Bank President Trichet are expected later in the session. In U.S. news, Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak today include Richmond Fed??™s Lacker ??“ who has notably dissented with his colleagues and voted for higher rates recently ??“ and Fed Governor Warsh. Data to be released in the U.S. tomorrow include weekly jobless claims and final November University of Michigan consumer sentiment. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.2740 level.

??/ CNY

The yen was little-changed vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ??118.25 level and was supported around the ??117.85 level. Technically, today??™s intraday high was around the 50% retracement of the move from ??119.85 to ??116.55 and today??™s intraday low was just above the 38.2% retracement of the same range. Traders cited little reason to buy yen today as G20 finance ministers who convened this weekend did not express concern with short yen carry trades. Minutes from Bank of Japan??™s Policy Board meeting from 12-13 October were released overnight and they did not provide any evidence as to when borrowing costs may rise further. Policymakers noted ???the economy continued to expand moderately??? and the lack of clarity about additional rate hikes suggest the central bank may indeed wait until 2007 before lifting overnight rates again. BoJ Deputy Governor Muto said the central bank will raise rates once it ???confirms a need to act,??? adding it does not have a ???predetermined schedule.??? The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.05% to close at ??15,734.14. Dollar bids are cited around the ??117.35 level. The euro came off vis-? -vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ??151.20 level and was capped around the ??151.55 level. The British pound and Swiss franc gained marginal ground vis-? -vis the yen as the crosses tested offers around the ??224.25 and ??95.05 levels, respectively. The Chinese yuan appreciated vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 7.8700 in the exchange-traded market, down from CNY 7.8750, and at CNY 7.8710 in the over-the-counter market. People??™s Bank of China Governor Zhou said China must implement social security and health care reforms.

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The British pound gained marginal ground vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.9000 figure and was supported around the US$ 1.8960 level. Technically, today??™s intraday low was right around the 38.2% retracement of the move from $1.9175 to $1.8885 and today??™s intraday high was just below the 50% retracement of the same range. IRS pay awards data indicated pay packages remain around 3% but added there is upward pressure on wage settlements. CBI??™s monthly industrial trends survey was released today and its total order book improved to -6 in November from -20 in October, much better than expected. Notably, the balance of manufacturers reporting ???above normal??? export orders reached their first positive balance since February 1996. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.8925 level. The euro moved lower vis-? -vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ?‚¤0.6745 level and was capped around the ?‚¤0.6760 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc lost marginal ground vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.2445 level and was supported around the CHF 1.2415 level. Technically, today??™s intraday high was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from CHF 1.2770 to CHF 1.2345. Swiss data released today saw October producer and import prices fall 0.1% m/m while year-on-year prices rose 2.4%. It was also reported that September exports were up 17.8% to a record CHF 16.6 billion. Dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.2505 level. The euro came off marginally vis-? -vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.5930 level while the British pound gained marginal ground vis-? -vis the Swiss franc and tested offers around the CHF 2.3620 level.

AUD

The Australian dollar depreciated marginally vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the Aussie tested bids around the US$ 0.7685 level and was capped around the $0.7705 level. Technically, today??™s intraday high was just above the 23.6% retracement of the move from $0.6770 to $0.7985. Australian dollar bids are cited around the US$ 0.7615 level.



CAD

The Canadian dollar weakened vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the C$ 1.1475 level and was supported around the C$ 1.1445 level. Data released in Canada today September retail sales decline 1.2% in September. Dollar offers are cited around the C$ 1.1570 level.

NZD

The New Zealand dollar came off marginally vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the kiwi tested bids around the US$ 0.6675 level and was capped around the US$ 0.6715 level. New Zealand dollar offers are cited around the US$ 0.6870 level.

Gold/ Silver

Gold gained ground vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the yellow metal tested offers around the US$ 627.85 level and was supported around the $622.00 figure. Gains in oil today contributed to the pair??™s climb. Silver moved higher vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar as the pair tested offers around the US$ 13.09 level and was supported around the US$ 12.73 level.

Crude Oil

Crude oil appreciated vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as light, sweet NYMEX crude oil futures for January delivery tested offers around the US$ 59.45 level and was supported around the $58.65 level. Crude loadings in Valdez, Alaska were suspended overnight on account of poor weather and this reduced the transfer of 800,000 barrels of oil per day that come across the Trans Alaska Pipeline to 25% of capacity. Traders remain focused on OPEC??™s 1 November supply cut and its next meeting in Nigeria on 14 December.