NEWS / Macroeconomic Stories

Dollar edged lower on speculation of higher unemployment October revision.

By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader Yesterdays News and Events: The Dollar edged lower on Tuesday in light and mostly technical forex trading in absence of key US economic data. Volumes are thin ahead of US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. The Japanese currency has been under pressure, with investors selling this low-yielding currency against higher-yielding currencies as Dollar, Euro and Sterling. Most analysts are expecting the BOJ to raise interest rates only gradually. This was confirmed by today release of BOJ??™s minutes from 12-13 October meeting. EurJpy ended around 151.38 just below Monday??™s record high 151.68. Dollar came under pressure after the White House lowered its forecast for US economic growth this year and also on speculation that the October unemployment rate could be revised higher. Of course, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics dismissed the rumor. EurUsd ended slightly higher at 1.2844 +0.25%. UK factory orders fell far less than expected in November to -6 against -15 forecasted and -20 in the previous month. Todays Key Issues: GB Bank of England Minutes is due at 9:30 GMT. Euro-zone September Industrial New Orders is due at 10:00 GMT expected -2% vs 3.7% (MoM) and 10.4 vs 14.3 (YoY). CAD October Consumer Price Index is due at 12:00 GMT expected -0.2% vs -0.5% (MoM) and 1% vs 0.7% (YoY). US November Initial Jobless Claims due at 13:30 GMT is expected 310k vs 308k.US November University of Michigan final Confidence is due at 15:00 GMT expected 93.1 vs 93.6. Thursday 23rd November; US Thanksgiving Day ??“ US Markets Closed, JPN Labor Thanksgiving Day ??“ Japanese Markets Closed. The Risk Today: EurUsd consolidated from Monday's 1.2852 high and stopped just near the 1.2796 support (61.8% retracement of the 1.2761-1.2852 rise). The ability of this support to reject downward pressures from 1.2852 is a sign that the broader underlying tone is still positive. The next big barrier is the 1.290. A move above there would open the door toward the 1.2941 to 1.2981 strong resistance band. USDCHF remains heavy but will have to break last Tuesday's 1.2384 reaction low to fully reinstate the down trend for a run at its 1.2346 support. GbpUsd's recovery from 1.8835 is targeting the next resistance at 1.9050 (61.8% retracement of the 1.9182 to 1.8835 decline). Only a move above there would qualify 1.8840 as strong and key support. USDJPY remains stuck in a sideways trend between the 118.60 resistance and the 116.60 support. Only a breakout from this range would establish directional trend. Resistance and Support: EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF 1.2981 S 1.9144 K 120.00 P 1.2707 S 1.2941 T 1.9050 S 119.90 T 1.2583 S 1.2901 S 1.9010 S 118.60 S 1.2540 M 1.2850 1.9005 117.72 1.2400 1.2750 M 1.8840 K 117.25 M 1.2346 K 1.2620 S 1.8770 S 116.60 S 1.2290 S 1.2450 T 1.8601 P 116.06 T 1.2185 T S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot