NEWS / Foreign Exchange

Big Week for the USD

EURUSD fell on Friday due to the strong housing data, but keep in mind that housing still is trending lower. Big week for the US economy this week as both the Durables, GDP and PCE will be released.

Overnight News Bullets

• GE Import Price Index MoM/YoY (Feb) out at 0.5%/0.8% vs. 0.4%/0.7% expected.
• FR Consumer Spending MoM/YoY (Feb) out at -0.4%/5.0% vs. -0.4%/4.8% expected.
• IT Retail Sales MoM/YoY (Jan) out at -0.4%/0.0% vs. 0.2%/1.0% expected.
• NO Unemployment Rate (Jan) out at 2.7% as expected.
• US Existing Home Sales (Feb) out at 6.69M/3.9% vs. 6.30M/-2.5% expected.
• NZ Trade Balance (Feb) out at -0.127B vs. -0.250B expected.
• AU RBA Financial Stability Review, headlines: RBA says volatility has increased in some markets, households more cautious with finances, business balance sheets in good shape
• JN BoJ Minutes showed that rate increase was due to an upward revision of the mid-term outlook.
   

Markets

• FX: USD strengthening on housing market data.
• Fixed Income: Bunds falling, 10yrs also fell on Friday. JGB??™s down 0.2 pct. o/n.
• Stocks: Decent session in the EU, US ranging. Nikkei 0.1 pct. higher today.
• Commodities: Precious metals sold off on Friday, but have com back o/n. Crude bullish
   

O/N Data Heat map:

Calendar

Today's Highlights:

This and Next Week??™s Highlights:

What's going on?

• The USD strengthened on Friday due to the strong Existing Home Sales, but the trend is still lower  ??“ watch the New Home Sales Today. We still think that the dovish tone from the Fed will weigh more, hence a lower USD. Big data releases this week (GDP, Durables, PCE).
• BoJ minutes showed an 8-1 vote for an increase, based on a 1-2 year outlook. Some pressure on the underlying inflation is expected.
• Post FOMC gains in stocks were retained going into the weekend. We look for a re-test of pre-correction highs.

FX