Bernanke Testimony Surprised the Market

Despite the very weak durable goods orders, the USD went higher yesterday on the Bernanke testimony as he reiterated that the Fed still is concerned about the inflationary pressure in the US economy.

Overnight News Bullets

UK Nationwide House Price MoM/YoY (Mar) out at 0.4%/9.3% vs. 0.7%/9.6% expected.
GE GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (Apr) out at 4.4 vs. 4.5 expected.
SW Retail Sales MoM/YoY (Feb) out at 0.4%/6.9% vs. 1.6%/7.9% expected.
E-Z M3 MoM/YoY (Feb) out at 9.9%/9.8% vs. 9.9%/10.0% expected.
UK GDP QoQ/YoY (4Q F) out at 0.7%/3.0% vs. 0.7%/3.0% expected.
UK Current Account (4Q) out at -12.7B vs. -9.0B expected.
SZ KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (Mar) out at 1.90 vs. 1.83 expected.
US MBA Mortgage Applications out at -0.2% vs. -2.7% prior.
US Durable Goods Orders (Feb) out at 2.5% vs. 3.5% expected. Core Durables out at -0.1% vs. 1.8% expected.
GE CPI MoM/YoY (Mar P) out at 0.3%/1.9% vs. 0.2%/1.8% expected.
NZ Current Account (4Q) out at -3.929B vs. -4.100B expected.
JN Retail Trade MoM/YoY (Feb) out at -0.2%/-0.9% vs. 0.1%/-0.5% expected.
JN Large Retailers??� Sales (Feb) out at 0.5% as expected.

Markets

FX: Bernanke comments pushed USD higher
Fixed Income: Bunds and 10yrs slightly lower. JGB??�s a tad higher today.
Stocks: Bearish sessions in both Europe and the US. Nikkei closed 0.1% lower.
Commodities: Precious metals rose y??�day. Crude oil rose 1.8 pct. y??�day but has fallen below $64/bbl o/n.

O/N Data Heat map:

Calendar

Today's Highlights:

Today

This and Next Week??�s Highlights:

What's going on?

Bernanke testifying on the US economy: ???Our policy is still oriented towards control of inflation, which we at this time consider to be the greatest risk??? [??�] ???I do want to emphasize that we have not shifted away from an inflation bias???.
Bernankes comments hit stocks hard and the USD strengthened afterwards, but we are still seeing almost no volatility in EURUSD.
The Durable Goods Orders yesterday should act as a confirmation that personal consumption growth is weakening. This is the last piece of the puzzle that makes the picture of a recession down the road??� no matter what Bernanke says.