We saw very limited price actions after the release of the final Q4 GDP figures, but the downtrend in housing related figures (and construction) poses a danger for GDP growth going forward...

Overnight News Bullets

• Japanese Small Business Confidence (Mar) out at 50.4 vs. 48.8 previously.

• Swedish Consumer Confidence (Mar) out at 15.4 vs. 18.0 expected.

• Swedish Manufacturing Confidence (Mar) out at 8 vs. 4 expected.

• German Unemployment Change (Mar) out at -65K vs. -46K expected.

• German Unemployment Rate (Mar) out at 9.2% as expected.

• Norwegian Unemployment Rate (Mar) out at 2.1% as expected.

• Norwegian Retail Sales MoM (Feb) out at 0.2% vs. 0.0% expected.

• A streak of E-Z Retail PMI figures stronger than expected.

• US GDP Annualized (4Q F) out at 2.5% vs. 2.2% expected. Personal Consumption (4Q F) out at 4.2% as expected. GDP Price Index out at 1.7% as expected. Core PCE QoQ (4Q F) out at 1.8% vs. 1.9% expected.

• US Initial Jobless Claims out at 308K vs. 320K expected.

• US Help Wanted Index (Feb) out at 31 as expected.

• NZ GDP (4Q) out at 0.8% vs. 0.9% expected.

• Japanese Jobless Rate (Feb) out at 4.0% as expected. Job-To-Applicant Ratio out at 1.05 vs. 1.06 exp.

• Japanese Overall Household Spending YoY (Feb) out at 1.3% vs. 0.6% expected.

• Japanese CPI data generally lower than expected.

• Japanese Industrial Production MoM (Feb P) out at -0.2% vs. -0.7% expected.

• NZ NBNZ Business Confidence (Mar) out at -12.5 vs. -5.9 previously.

• Japanese Housing Starts YoY (Feb) out at -9.9% vs. -2.5% expected.

• Japanese Construction Orders YoY (Feb) out at 7.0% vs. 4.8% expected.
   

Markets

• FX: USD edging lower. AUD consolidating higher.

• Fixed Income: Continuing lower across the board.

• Stocks: Strong European session. US only posting modest gains. Nikkei a tad higher.

• Commodities: Precious metals consolidating. Oil is two bucks higher, now around 66.50.

O/N Data Heat map:

Calendar

Today's Highlights:

This and Next Week??™s Highlights:

What's going on?

• The better than expected Q4 revision of US GDP sent Treasuries lower. 
• EURUSD in a very tight range. We favor the upside. AUDUSD to accelerate the upside??¦ 0.8214 still a magnetic level.
• Today??™s PCE figures for Feb is key for the rate outlook and the USD. Potential surprises could be important. Construction Spending also important. Expected to drop 0.4%. That might be optimistic. The trend is lower.
• Oil going significantly higher, reflecting increasing risk aversion. Credit spreads are again widening.

FX

Core PCE YoY in focus