NEWS / Foreign Exchange

About the US Dollar

Latest days have been quite bluffing in the US Dollar markets, and I bet a lot of players are being now overly sensitive to the short-term developments.
I am not so, however. I am still more interested in getting a grasp of the 'forest', rather than in counting the 'trees'.

I continue to think we may nowadays be at an important juncture in the US Dollar.

On the one hand, some of the latest developments are undeniably bearish for the US Dollar. The AUD/USD has just broken out to reaching new multi-annual highs, while the USD/NOK looks like on the verge of a massive breakdown.

On the other hand, once compressing a long-term chart of the US Dollar Index - the upleg developed in 2005 seems too short a movement to have reasonably corrected the preceding, 3-year downtrend (same idea I have about the USD/CAD).

In the long run I am outright US Dollar bearish, as I think there is solid fundamental as well as technical evidence suggesting the US Dollar Index will at some point break under the 80 level.
What interests me at the moment, however, is whether the US Dollar's positive correction triggered in late 2004 will actually continue for some time on. If it will, then I have to suspect the major European currencies may be currently moving toward the upper end of a multi-month (actually, a multi-year) constriction against the US Dollar - and then a change in the balance between supply and demand in the corresponding markets is soon going to become apparent.