NEWS / Foreign Exchange

U.S. Forex Market Commentary

EURO

The euro appreciated vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currencytested offers around the US$ 1.3380 level and was supported around the $1.3315level.  Technically, today??™s intraday lowwas right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.3410 to $1.3255 andtoday??™s intraday high was just above the 76.4% retracement of the same range.Data released in the U.S.today was on the soft side as the March ISM services index backtracked to 52.4from 54.3 in February, below expectations, while the prices paid componentmoved higher.  Also, February factoryorders printed at a lesser-than-expected 1% with the ex-transportationcomponent at -0.4% and January??™s result was revised to -5.7%.  Additionally, the ADP jobs report revealedsome 106,000 private sector jobs were created last month and many tradersbelieve Friday??™s March non-farm payrolls report will evidence job creation ofsome 150,000 new jobs last month.  Manytraders also expect upward revisions to January??™s and February??™s non-farmpayrolls reports.  The Challenger reportwas also released today and indicated total layoff intentions receded to 48,997in March from 84,014 in February ??“ data that should support a strong jobsreport on Friday.  In eurozone news,European Central Bank member Constancio hawkisly said EMU-13 interest rates???remain low??? in real terms.  Traderscontinue to expect at least one more +25bps monetary tightening from the ECBthis year.  Data released in Germany todaysaw February manufacturing orders climb 3.9% y/y while the EMU-13 March PMIservices index ticked lower to 57.4 from 57.5. Also, EMU-13 February retail sales climbed 0.3% m/m and 1.2% y/y.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3285level.

JPN/CNY

Theyen appreciated vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ??118.60 leveland was capped around the ??119.10 level. Technically, today??™s intraday high was right around the 23.6%retracement of the move from ??109.00 to ??122.15.  Overall, the yen continues to suffer fromshort yen carry trades and interest rate expectations in the eurozone, U.K., and Australia continue to make the yena cheap funding vehicle.  Traders arecurious to see if last week??™s CPI data in which some deflation was evident inthe Japanese economy are a blip on the radar or a return to negative pricegrowth. Either way, most traders do not expect Bank of Japan??™s Policy Board tolift interest rates until later in the year.  The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 1.74% toclose at ??17,544.09.  Dollar bids arecited around the ??118.00/ 117.45 levels. The euro gained marginal groundvis-? -vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ??158.95 leveland was supported around the ??158.10 level. The British pound came offvis-? -vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ??234.05 level while the Swiss franc gained ground vis-? -visthe yen and tested offers around the ??97.55 level.  TheChinese yuan weakened marginally vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar as the greenbackclosed at CNY 7.7325 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 7.7315.  Bank of America issued a report predictingthe yuan??™s appreciation could accelerate in April and May.

STERLING

The British pound gained ground vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offersaround the US$ 1.9770 level and was supported around the US$ 1.9715 level.  Technically, today??™s intraday low was rightaround the 38.2% retracement of the move from $1.9545 to $1.9820.  Data released in the U.K. today sawNationwide Q1 house price growth accelerate but evidence signs of slowing.  Also, the BRC monthly shop price index was up0.49% m/m and 0.69% y/y while the March PMI services index ticked up to 57.6 from57.4.  Sterlingwas lifted during the North American session after Iran announced it will release thefifteen British soldiers it kidnapped last month.  The repo futures market is pricing in about a50% chance the Bank of England??™s Monetary Policy Committee will lift interestrates by +25bps.  Cable bids are citedaround the US$ 1.9660 level.  The euro moved higher vis-? -vis theBritish pound as the single currency tested offers around the ?‚¤0.6775 level andwas supported around the ?‚¤0.6750 level.

SWISS

The Swissfranc gained ground vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback testedbids around the CHF 1.2175 level and was capped around the CHF 1.2230level.  Technically, today??™s intradayhigh was right around the 38.2% retracement of the move from CHF 1.2570 to CHF1.2025. Data released in Switzerlandtoday saw March corporate bankruptcies fall 9.2%.  Dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.2300figure.  The euro and British pound came off vis-? -vis the Swiss franc asthe crosses tested bids around the CHF 1.6280 and CHF 2.4055 levels,respectively.

AUD

The Australian dollar reversed course andappreciated vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the Aussie tested offers around the US$0.8195 level and was supported around the $0.8065 level.  Technically, today??™s intraday low was rightaround the 23.6% retracement of the move from $0.8040 to $0.8180.  Today??™s intraday high represents a freshdecade-long high.  Traders sold the pairlast night after Reserve Bank of Australia voted to not liftinterest rates but most traders continue to expect the central bank willtighten monetary policy from 6.25% next month. Data released in Australia todaysaw the March AIG services index fall to 50.6. Australian dollar bids are cited around the US$ 0.8070 level.

CAD

The Canadian dollar gained marginal ground vis-? -visthe U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the C$ 1.1545 level and was cappedaround the C$ 1.1590 level.  Datareleased in Canadatoday saw February building permits fall 22.4% m/m to C$ 4.9 billion.  U.S. dollar bids are cited around the C$1.1510 level.