16:16 2007/04/06
U.S. Forex Market Commentary
EURO The euro weakened vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currencytested bids around the US$ 1.3370 level and was capped around the $1.3430level. Technically, today??™s intraday lowwas right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.3410 to$1.3255. The common currency yesterdaytraded at its highest level since March 2005. The all-important U.S.March non-farm payrolls report was released today and gave the U.S. dollar areprieve as March non-farm payrolls climbed 180,000, above expectations. Also,January??™s and February??™s payrolls tallies were upwardly revised a cumulative32,000 jobs. The unemployment rate fellto 4.4%, matching its May 2001 low, and average hourly earnings were up +0.3%.These data contradict the growing notion that the U.S. economy may be slowing andFederal Reserve policymakers are unlikely to be overly concerned with the wagescomponent. Traders will monitor next week??™s Group of Seven meeting. In eurozone news, the German media reportedthe German government will lift its 2007 GDP forecast from its current 1.7%estimate. Euro bids are cited around theUS$ 1.3300/ 1.3245 levels. JPN/CNY Theyen depreciated vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ??119.35level and was supported around the ??118.65 level. The pair moved to its highest level since 27February after the U.S.March jobs report was released. Japanesefinance minister Omi stressed next week??™s Group of Seven meeting will not focuson the yen, stating ???discussion on exchange rates is likely to include the yen, the dollar, theeuro, and the yuan.??? Bank of Japan??™stwo-day Policy Board meeting will begin on Monday and it is virtually assuredthe central bank will not lift interest rates at this time. Comments from BoJ Governor Fukui will beclosely monitored, especially after last week??™s return of some deflationaryconsumer prices. Japan??™sforeign reserves jumped to US$ 908.96 billion at the end of March from US$905.05 billion. Data released in Japan today sawthe February leading index fall to 30.0 from 40.9 in January while thecoincident index plummeted to 16.7 from 45.0. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.04% to close at ??17,484.78. Dollar bids are cited around the ??118.30level. The euro moved higher vis-? -vis the yen as the single currencytested offers around the ??159.65 level and was supported around the ??159.25level. The British pound appreciatedvis-? -vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ??234.55 level while the Swiss franc came off marginallyvis-? -vis the yen and tested bids around the ??97.50 level. TheChinese yuan appreciated vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closedat CNY 7.7213 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 7.7243 and apost-yuan revaluation low. Data releasedin Chinasaw the Q1 business confidence index improve to 142.0. STERLING The British pound depreciated vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids aroundthe US$ 1.9635 level and was capped around the US$ 1.9720 level. Technically, today??™s intraday low was rightaround the 61.8% retracement of the move from $1.9915 to $1.9180. NIESR today indicated Bank of England shouldlift interest rates further despite a deceleration in U.K. economicgrowth. Cable bids are cited around theUS$ 1.9580/ 50 levels. The euro came off vis-? -vis the Britishpound as the single currency tested bids around the ?‚¤0.6800 figure and wascapped around the ?‚¤0.6815 level. CHF The Swissfranc depreciated vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback testedoffers around the CHF 1.2225 level and was supported around the CHF 1.2145 level. Technically, today??™s intraday high was justabove the 38.2% retracement of the move from CHF 1.2770 to CHF 1.1875. Dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.2280level. The euro and British pound moved higher vis-? -vis the Swiss francand tested offers around the CHF 1.6345 and CHF 2.4005 levels, respectively. AUD The Australiandollar moved lower vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the Aussie tested bidsaround the US$ 0.8150 level and was capped around the $0.8200 figure. The pair established a fresh, decade-old highyesterday and many traders believe Reserve Bank of Australia will lift interest ratesin May. Australian dollar bids are citedaround the US$ 0.8085 level. CAD The Canadian dollar gained marginal ground vis-? -visthe U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the C$ 1.1500 figure and wascapped around the C$ 1.1530 level. Technically,today??™s intraday low was just below the 38.2% retracement of the move from C$1.0925 to C$ 1.1875. U.S. dollar bidsare cited around the C$ 1.1450 level.
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