NEWS / Foreign Exchange

FOMC Minutes, Import price Index, Trade Balance, PPI and core, Consumer sentiment Prel.

FOMC Minutes (March, Wednesday 14.00 pm)

We expect that staff forecast for the past meeting to have, once again, increased the downside risks to growth. Behind this higher risk lies the poor performance in the housing sector, not only because of the well-publicized problems in the subprime market, but the housing sector in general. Another important factor considered was probably the current underperformance observed in non-residential investment. These facts probably determined the latest phrase used by Fed members: ???rise of uncertainty??? regarding growth. It was also probable that the majority agreed to make explicit their increased optimism regarding the control of future inflation, leading to the new phrase ???inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time???. But at the same time being clear to emphasize that ???the Committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation???.

Import Price Index (March, Thursday, 10.00 am)

Forecast: 0.6 Consensus: 0.5 Prior: 0.2

The rise in oil prices will play an important role in the rise expected in the Import Price Index. Excluding fuel, the other components (cars, consumption goods and capital goods) show no inflationary pressures. Although the risk of further oil price increases or/and future dollar depreciation still remain.

Trade balance (March, Friday, 8:30 am)

Forecast: -60.4B Consensus: -61B Prior: -59.1B

Again the rise in oil prices will be behind the probable increase in the trade deficit. Although in our base scenario this rise in oil price will eventually recede. Lower oil prices together with strong performance of other countries, added with the lower expected growth in the US, will lead in the medium term to an expected improvement in this figure.

PPI and core (March, Friday, 8:30 am)

Forecast: 0.6% 0.2% Consensus: 0.8% 0.2% Prior: 1.3% 0.4%

Higher energy prices will exert pressure in PPI. Although we don??™t expect this pressure to be as large as the one observed in the previous period, when highly volatile food components played a big role (associated with bad weather). We expect a low pass-trough given the strong financial standing of the corporate sector. Therefore the core would remain contained.

Consumer Sentiment Prel. (March, Friday, 9:50 am)

Forecast: 87 Consensus: 87 Prior: 88.4

Higher oil prices again play an important role. This, added wih a slowdown in job creation with respect to 2006 will lead to a reduction in Consumer Sentiment.