NEWS / Foreign Exchange

I remain very bearish the US dollar despite the employment data

I remain very bearish the US dollar despite the employment data. The markets generally have hugely over reacted to one piece of data from a volatile series, and historically it is not that big a number, and is likely to be followed by a much lower number next month.

Meantime all the other data points to caution on the US economy, and the Fed was never going to cut any time soon.

So this US dollar bounce back from fresh lows is a false dawn. Expect renewed US dollar selling with a vengeance this week.

The AUD and NZD look extremely strong, and should go 83 cents and 73 cents respectively this week.

Currency Trading

TACTICAL Points are for April

EUR/USD 1.3395 -35 pts
Long 2 units 1.3349, stop loss 1.3321
Long 2 units 1.3399, stop loss 1.3341
Long 2 units 1.3429, stopped 1.3381
Sell 2 units on stop 1.3261, stop loss 1.3299

GBP/USD 1.9665 +11 pt
Long 2 units 1.9769, stopped 1.9721
Buy 2 units on stop 1.9699, stop loss 1.9641
Buy 2 units on stop 1.9739, stop loss 1.9681
Short 2 units 1.9671, stop loss 1.9699

USD/YEN 118.85 +16 pts
Long 2 units 118.69, stop loss 118.61
Sell 2 units on stop 118.51, stop loss 118.99
Sell 2 units on stop 118.21, stop loss 118.69

EUR/YEN 159.25 +156 pts
Long 2 units 157.69, Profit stop loss 158.81

EUR/GBP .6815 -1 pts
Long 2 units .6779, Profit stop loss .6781
Short 2 units .6761, stopped .6779

GBP/YEN 233.85 +211 pts
Long 2 units 230.99, Took Profit 233.71
Buy 2 units on stop 234.79, stop loss 233.71
Sell 2 units on stop 233.01, stop loss 233.89

AUD/USD .8230 +166 pts
Long 2 units .8109, Took Profit .8151
Long 2 units .8129, Took Profit .8161
Long 2 units .8159, Took Profit .8161
Long 2 units .8199, stopped .8171
Long 2 units .8229, stop loss .8181
Buy 2 units on stop .8249, stop loss .8211
Buy 2 units on stop .8269, stop loss .8221
Sell 2 units on stop .8031, stop loss .8069

NZD/USD .7235 +108 pts
Long 2 units .7209, stop loss .7181
Buy 2 units on stop .7229, stop loss .7171
Sell 2 units on stop .7071, stop loss .7109

AUD/YEN 97.80 +250 pts
Long 2 units 94.79, Profit stop loss 97.01

1 unit = 50% of Initial Account Size
e.g. for a $100,000 account,
1 unit = $50,000 position
2 units = $100,000 position

STRATEGIC

EUR 1.3395
Bullish at 1.3369, S/L 1.3301
Sell at 1.3201, S/L 1.3289

GBP 1.9665
Bullish 1.9739
Stopped at 1.9701
Buy at 1.9739, S/L 1.9641
Sell at 1.9441, S/L 1.9499

YEN 118.85
Bullish at 118.69, S/L 118.31
Sell at 117.01, S/L 117.79

EUR/YEN 159.25
Bullish at 156.99, Profit S/L 158.11
Sell at 156.21, S/L 156.89

AUD .8230
Bullish at .8229, S/L .8171
Sell at .8021, S/L .8069

NZD .7235
Bullish at .7179, S/L .7161
Sell at .7061, S/L .7099

CHF 1.2225
Bullish at 1.2269, S/L 1.2201
Sell at 1.2181, S/L 1.2249

CAD 1.1510
Buy at 1.1639, S/L 1.1581
Bearish at 1.1531, S/L 1.1569