NEWS / Foreign Exchange

CAD strengthened ahead of housing start data

Japanese data out last night showed weaker-than-expected machine orders for February. On the back of this data, JPY is understandably a bit weaker this morning. European data was a bit light overnight, but EUR is a shade weaker this morning ahead of Fed minutes and speeches. Market participants expect Fed speeches given today to reflect FOMC inflationary vigilance (as the ECB would say). If they do not highlight inflationary concerns, however, the tide of dollar strength overnight could turn and result in greater weakness.

Overnight, CAD strengthened ahead of housing start data, which was stronger in March than February, but weaker than consensus expectations.

Today's U.S. data include the minutes from the March 21st FOMC meeting and the monthly budget statement from March. Watch for the Fed minutes to be parsed most critically for hints as to the rationale behind the Fed's more dovish March policy rate statement. Clearly, the economy has slowed, but if the Fed highlights growth concerns more sharply than inflationary concerns in the minutes, the greenback could come under significant pressure.