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03:34 2007/04/12

NEWS / Foreign Exchange

Fed's Moskow reiterates that inflation is a greater risk than growth

- Fed's Moskow reiterates that inflation is a greater risk than growth: Many suggest that today's FOMC minutes show that there is a big fight going on inside the Fed between officials who are more worried about inflation and those more concerned about growth. Moskow made it clear that he is more worried about inflation, adding that the Fed controls the inflation rate and not growth. Moskow also warned against the rising protectionism in the U.S. Perhaps the most interesting comment from Moskow - he said that high job creation could point to economy being stronger than expected, contrasting the comments made by Poole yesterday (Poole said that the U.S. economy is not as strong as the Fed expected two months ago)

- Full time jobs surge in Australia, pushing AUD/USD to a new 17yr high: (AU MARCH EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: 10.5K V 15.0K expected (PRIOR +22K); UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.5% V 4.6% expected, prior employment change revised to 23.2K from 22.0K) Analyst estimates for Australia's employment change ranged from +5K rise to +40K, and the actual figure came in at the bottom of that range. The AUD initially lost strength, but soon rallied as traders focused on the full time employment component coming in strong (the full time component that has the biggest impact on retail spending) and the unemployment rate coming in lower than expected. The strong Aussie labor market is not new news for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and many suggest the jobs data merely confirms the tightening bias of the RBA.

- More bad news for JPY bulls: The Nikkei newspaper reports, without citing sources, that a Bank of Japan report may disclose that CPI will rise only 0.3% in current year, below the 0.5% projection made at the end of October. The newspaper added that the BoJ may disclose that production is somewhat weak.

- Forex: The GBP gained strength from another strong housing number (UK March Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors House Price Balance: 25.5% v 21.0% expected, 24.8% prior). March's increase in the index was the first in five months, hinting that the UK housing market has brushed off the recent rate hikes from BoE. The EUR remained strong ahead of Trichet's press conference. The consensus is that Trichet certainly won't hurt the EUR and it should remain underpinned. Trichet is expected to remain focused on inflation. The EUR/JPY hit a new all-time above 160.43, the third straight day of an all-time high. EUR/USD also hit a 2yr high against USD despite the hawkish FOMC minutes. The AUD/USD hits a new 17yr high after jobs data, but could not take out daily resistance levels.

- Asian Equities: The Nikkei 225 is lower by more than 1.0% on declines in technology shares. Shares of Research in Motion fell more than 5% in after-hours trading following its earnings report, dragging down Asian tech stocks. Concerns about rising inflation and slowing growth in the U.S. also added downside to Japanese equities. Japanese banking shares declined on profit-taking and reports that the Bank of Japan may lower its inflation outlook. The Kospi is little changed on today's session. Declines in South Korean exporters were offset by gains in SK Corp on its restructuring plans. The ASX 200 index is currently in positive territory on gains in shares of Summit Resources after Paladin raised its offer for the company. Chinese equities are gaining for the 9th consecutive session.

- Other news: Bank of Korea left rates unchanged, as expected. The Bank of Korea said that exports remain strong, adding that domestic consumption remains strong. Chinese foreign direct investment climbed 11.56% between January-March. The Chinese did not give figures for March alone.

- Commodities: Spot Gold is currently little changed as the FOMC minutes capped further gains. Gold is holding above the $682.00 level. Crude oil is slightly lower an below $62 after US weekly crude inventories rose, while gasoline stocks were once again less than expected. Shanghai Copper is higher on a decline in global stockpiles and on reports that workers at the world's largest copper producer's, Codelco, mine (641K metric tons of copper in 2006) blocked access to the mine due to a labor dispute.

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2007/04/11

03:32 2007/04/11 Fed's Plosser says that U.S. economy is not as strong as the Fed expected two months ago

2007/04/10

03:28 2007/04/10 Traders dump the USD on U.S.-China trade tensions

2007/04/09

03:05 2007/04/09 Traders seem willing to test the USD's upside after jobs data

02:55 2007/04/09 Strong US Job Growth Delays Any Chance of a Fed Rate Cut

2007/04/06

02:59 2007/04/06 Short covering helps the USD ahead of jobs data

2007/04/05

03:26 2007/04/05 Asian stocks fall as traders wait out NFP

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