NEWS / Foreign Exchange

US: Claims and import prices surprise on the upside

US: Claims and import prices surprise on the upside

Initial claims jumped by an unexpectedly large 19 000 to 342 000 in the most recent week that included Good Friday. The latter suggests that the sharp rise is a quirk in the data due to the adjustment process and therefore one shouldn??™t draw too many conclusions from the result. The less volatile 4-week average rose to 323 250, while the insured unemployment rate stabilized at 1.9%. Continuing claims rose by 38 000 to 2 527 000.

Import prices surged by 1.7% M/M in March to be up 2.8% Y/Y, up from 1% Y/Y in February. Consensus was looking for a more modest 0.8% M/M increase. Import petroleum prices were the culprit as they rose by 9% M/M. Excluding petroleum prices, import prices rose 0.3% M/M and 2.9% Y/Y, following a 2.3% Y/Y increase in February. So the rise core import prices is currently accelerating, but one should take into account the volatile nature of the series.