| U.S. Forex Market Commentary |
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17:33 2007/04/18 |
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EURO Theeuro gained marginal ground vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$1.3615 level and was supported around the US$ 1.3555 level. The common currency established a freshmulti-year high and came within 50 pips of reaching its all-time high of US$1.3666. Eurogroup chairman Junckerverbally intervened to limit the pair??™s upside saying ???The markets should not embark onone-way bets.??? Options activity may belimiting the pair??™s upside and traders await comments from ECB PresidentTrichet today followed by ECB officials tomorrow. In other eurozone news, the German mediareported the country??™s five leading economic institutes lifted their forecastfor German GDP in 2007 to 2.4% from 1.4%. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3545/ 00 levels. JPN/CNY The yenappreciated vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ??118.10 level and was cappedaround the ??119.00 figure. Technically,today??™s intraday low was right around the 50% retracement of the move from??116.35 to ??119.80. Data released in Japan today sawthe February leading index downwardly revised to 27.3 from 30.0. The yen also scored gains on its crossestoday, an indication that traders may be reducing exposure to short yen carrytrades. The Nikkei 225 stock indexclosed at ??17,667.33. Dollar bids arecited around the ??117.70/ 40 levels. The euro weakened vis-? -vis the yen asthe single currency tested bids around the ??160.40 level and was capped aroundthe ??161.60 level. The British pound and Swiss franc came off vis-? -vis the ??236.85and ??98.00 levels, respectively. TheChinese yuan appreciated vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenbackclosed at CNY 7.7218 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 7.7291. STERLING The British pound came off vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids aroundthe US$ 2.0010 level and was capped around the US$ 2.0130 level, a freshmulti-decade high. Sterlinggained ground after U.K.headline average earnings expanded at their fastest pace in nearly three yearsin the three months to February, up 4.6% with bonuses factored in. Bank of England??™s reference rate is 4.5% thustoday??™s data were definitely of concern to inflation-minded policymakers andlikely cement a +25bps monetary tightening next month by the Monetary PolicyCommittee. Minutes from the MPC??™s Aprilmeeting were released today and they evidenced a 7-to-2 vote to keep the reporate unchanged at 5.25% this month. Other data released today saw unemployment claimants fall 9,200 with theclaimant count of unemployment at 2.9%. The ILO unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.5%. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 2.0005/1.9925 levels. The euro moved higher vis-? -vis the British pound as the singlecurrency tested offers around the ?‚¤0.6775 level and was supported around the?‚¤0.6755 level. SWISS The Swiss franc appreciated vis-? -vis the U.S.dollar todayas the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.2020 level and was capped aroundthe CHF 1.2090 level. The pair reachedits lowest level since 13 December. Technically, today??™s intraday high wasright around the 23.6% retracement of the move from CHF 1.2770 to CHF1.1875. Dollar offers are cited aroundthe CHF 1.2125 level. The euro and British pound came off vis-? -visthe Swiss franc as the crosses tested bids around the CHF 1.6355 and CHF 2.4130levels, respectively. AUD The Australian dollar depreciated vis-? -vis the U.S.dollar todayas the Aussie tested bids around the US$ 0.8315 level and was capped around the$0.8375 level. Data released in Australia todaysaw the April Westpac consumer sentiment index off 0.2% m/m and was up 3.5%y/y. Australian dollar bids are citedaround the US$ 0.8310/ 0.8265 levels. CAD The Canadian dollar appreciated vis-? -vis the U.S.dollar todayas the greenback tested bids around the C$ 1.1260 level and was capped aroundthe C$ 1.1340 level. Stops were hitbelow the C$ 1.1285 level, representing the 61.8% retracement of the move fromC$ 1.0925 to C$ 1.1875. Data released ubCanadatoday saw non-residents purchase C$ 4.8 billion of Canadian securities inFebruary. U.S. dollar bids are citedaround the C$ 1.1230 level. |
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